October 9, 2001
Secretary of State Colin L. Powell's plan to visit Pakistan and India this weekend underscores the Bush administration's queasiness that the war in nearby Afghanistan could exacerbate tensions between these two participants in the American-led campaign against terrorism, U.S. officials said.
While both countries are watching the war in Afghanistan with their own regional interests in mind, Pakistan and India are also keeping a nervous eye on each other. Administration officials said that Powell's trip, his first since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, is meant in large part to defuse the tension between these two nuclear-armed rivals that has escalated in the last week following a terrorist attack in Indian-ruled Kashmir.
"It's a nervous time, no doubt about it. Powell would be a very reassuring presence." said a senior administration official. "Now that the military action has started, there's an opportunity to go out and talk to both sides and say, 'Let's stay calm.' "
A primary objective of Powell's trip, officials said, is to reassure Pakistan that it will not come under attack from India while the attention of both Islamabad and Washington has turned to developments in Afghanistan.
"The Pakistanis have always worried, when they get diverted or consumed by one thing, about the Indians jumping in to take advantage," the senior official said.
The Indian government has provided both public and private assurances that it will not exploit Pakistan's tenuous situation, especially since the current campaign in Afghanistan could target Islamic militants who have carried out attacks against Indians.
But anger at Pakistan is running high in India after gunmen set off a car bomb on Oct. 2 outside the state legislature in the capital of Indian-ruled Kashmir and then opened fire inside the building, killing nearly 40 people. "The Indians are more than a little ticked off," the senior official said.
New Delhi has long accused Pakistan of supporting militants fighting to wrest control of Kashmir from Indian control. With elections upcoming in India's largest state, U.S. officials are concerned that the government of Prime Minister Atol Bihari Vajpayee could come under renewed public pressure to retaliate against Pakistan.
Stephen P. Cohen, a South Asia expert at the Brookings Institution, said U.S. officials will have to make clear that New Delhi should not "jump the gun." He said, "The Indian argument will be: 'Why shouldn't we do to Pakistan what the Americans did to Afghanistan?' "
To address Indian concerns, the administration is considering adding a militant group involved in Kashmiri separatist violence to a list of terrorist groups whose assets were ordered frozen two weeks ago by President Bush.
"Both sides are inherently suspicious that the other side will take advantage of the situation," said a U.S. government official. "The message to India is not only restraint. It's also, 'We hear you on terrorism.' "
During his stop in Islamabad, Powell also will seek to demonstrate U.S. faith in Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who has turned against the Taliban movement ruling Afghanistan and on Sunday purged its influential supporters from his military and intelligence services, U.S. officials said.
Musharraf's willingness to join the effort against the Taliban has provoked demonstrations in Pakistan.
While praising Musharraf's leadership, Powell is also expected to make clear that the Taliban should be replaced by a broad-based government reflecting various Afghan ethnic groups, despite Pakistani preference for a regime dominated by Pashtuns, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, administration officials said. This remains a matter of much sensitivity in Pakistan since many influential members of its security services come from the Pashtun community.
Diplomats regard a Powell visit to Pakistan as particularly important because Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld did not stop there during his quick tour of Middle Eastern and Central Asian capitals days before the military strike was launched. Nor did he stop in India.
In striking a balance between South Asia's longtime antagonists, Powell will also have to deliver a comforting message in New Delhi that the renewed focus on Pakistan, as an ally in the campaign against Saudi exile Osama bin Laden, does not spell trouble for Indo-American relations, U.S. officials said.
The Bush administration came into office determined to enhance the United States' often strained ties with India and moved quickly to make it the centerpiece of American strategic thinking in South Asia. Diplomatic contacts have soared while the Pentagon planned extensive cooperation with the Indian military.
Now, Powell needs to address "the concern in India about the renewed attention paid to Pakistan in recent weeks," said a State Department official. "We need to make it clear to India that they are important in the current coalition and we remain committed to the long-term improvement of relations with India."
Powell began providing that reassurance when Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh visited Washington last week.
Bush repeated the message when he called Vajpayee on Sunday to inform him that military action in Afghanistan was beginning.
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