Global Policy Forum

by Rahul Bedi

Nuclear rivals India and Pakistan have significantly raised tension in the region, already wracked by the Afghan conflict, by moving additional troops into the disputed border in northern Jammu and Kashmir state and gravely threatening the normally fragile peace between the neighbours.
The heightened strain between the South Asian adversaries - who continue to daily trade artillery and small arms fire across the volatile Kashmir frontier in what the Indian Army calls a 'no-war-no-peace' situation - comes at a crucial, albeit highly avoidable, juncture in the US-led alliance's war against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda terrorist network in Afghanistan.
"Washington desperately needs Pakistan and India to focus their attention exclusively on aiding the US in its campaign against Afghanistan. It does not want their regional rivalries activated at this particular moment," said a senior Indian security officer.
US Secretary of State Colin Powell visited India and Pakistan last month in an attempt to reduce tension between them over Kashmir, which is claimed by both countries. The regional rivals have fought two of their three wars since independence in 1947 over Kashmir. They also fought an 11-week long border war in Indian-administered Kashmir in 1999 in which over 1200 soldiers died. That conflict, which threatened to escalate between the nuclear-capable countries, was brought to a close by Washington persuading Pakistan to withdraw its troops from India's Kargil region.
India also accuses Pakistan of sponsoring the disputed state's 12-year-old civil war, which has claimed over 35,000 lives. Pakistan denies the claim, but has come under pressure for sponsoring Kashmiri terrorist groups that were funded by Bin Laden's Al Q'aeda ('The Base') global terrorism syndicate.
US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is also scheduled to visit Delhi and Islamabad next week on a mission similar to Powell's. Meanwhile, US B-52 bombers are being employed to hasten a collapse of the Taliban front lines in northern Afghanistan before the onset of the harsh Afghan winter.
On 1 November India accused Pakistan of adopting an 'offensive' posture along the line of control (LoC) that divides Kashmir between the rivals by mobilising 35,000 troops and armoured columns that it claims could be easily converted into an offensive force. Defence officials in Delhi say Islamabad has moved two infantry divisions and an armoured brigade into the Akhnoor sector, 35km from the Jammu border. Another armoured division and two independent armoured brigades have reportedly been shifted to the Bhawalpur area in northern Pakistan, some 25km from the border opposite Ganganagar in western India. An Indian or Pakistani armoured brigade has around 90-100 main battle tanks and an accompanying complement of around 45-50 infantry combat vehicles.
Pakistan's mobilisation comes a fortnight after it accused India of amassing troops along the LoC and a day after a senior Indian Army commander warned Islamabad that Delhi reserved the right to take military action against it and the terrorist groups it infiltrated into war-torn Kashmir.
"If the Pakistan Army continues to carry out hostile acts, to include sabotage, infiltration, raids or intrusions ... we reserve the right to take military action against the Pakistani military as deemed appropriate " said Gen Nanavatty, who heads India's Northern Command, based in Kashmir.
The "blatant aggression" being witnessed by Pakistan in Kashmir was "not dissimilar" to that in 1965 when India fought the second of its three wars with Pakistan, stated the normally reserved Gen Nanavatty. "The nuclearisation of the sub-continent may have altered the situation, but space still exists for limited conventional war," Gen Nanavatty said in Jammu earlier this week. Over the past year Northern Command has created adequate reserves in Kashmir for a possible strike across the border through "clever accounting and manipulation" of military manpower deployed on counter-insurgency operations, according to Indian military sources.
Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has said that India could respond appropriately to hostile actions by Pakistan. India's patience and love of peace was misread as weakness, he said, telling a public rally: "Let there be no such dissolution. India is today strong, united, progressive and ready to face any challenge."
In response, Pakistan warned India against precipitating matters. Its military spokesman, Major General Rashid Qureshi, told reporters in Islamabad that Pakistan would take "bare minimum" steps to defend itself. "If the Indians think they can take advantage of the situation [Pakistan's preoccupation with Afghanistan], they are mistaken," Gen Qureshi added.

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