June 11, 2002
Iraq's only Shia resistance group, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI, is trying to raise its profile. On June 10 the group's Web site said that "resistance forces" attacked a motorcade of a senior Iraqi official, killing three bodyguards. SCIRI also said it attacked and wounded another senior official a month ago in southern Iraq.
These operations were relatively insignificant, but the timing is noteworthy. The announcement comes as the group's representatives are having their first official meetings with State Department officials in Washington, D.C. It appears that the group is trying to position itself as an integral part of any U.S. action against Iraq.
Shias actually make up a majority of Iraq's population, and SCIRI is for the most part the only competent opposition force aside from the Kurdish groups in the north. It originally was formed as an Iranian proxy force during the Iran-Iraq war. After the war, the organization continued to operate with the aim of toppling Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's regime.
SCIRI has about 5,000 to 10,000 fighters based in southern Iraq. It has distanced itself from Iran to some extent, holding talks with the U.S. government in early 2001. But Iran's Revolutionary Guard reportedly continues to provide the group with weapons and training.
The group attacks Iraqi targets relatively often. It has fired Katyusha rockets, ambushed officials or lobbed mortars at Iraqi soldiers every three months or so for the last two years. The last attack this year was in the first week of February.
But the timing of the latest attacks on the two Iraqi officials is very interesting. The first attack in May came as the Iranian government was coalescing around an anti-U.S. policy after months of bickering. The attack could very well be meant to signal that SCIRI was still willing to work with the United States against Hussein, even though the Iranian government has decided to oppose the U.S. campaign.
The June 10 attack came as SCIRI officials, along with Kurdish opposition groups, were meeting with U.S. officials. The SCIRI leadership is very much aware that Washington already has had extensive contact with the Kurdish leadership over the last few months.
SCIRI probably is not committed fully to U.S. efforts against the Hussein regime. But it definitely doesn't want the Kurds to dominate Washington's plans and perhaps receive the lion's share of U.S. support. The attacks likely were meant to gain the group some respect at the negotiating table.
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