Global Policy Forum

By Hooman Peimani

The speedy US-led military success in Iraq aimed at a regime change has not prepared the grounds for the US government to embark on an equally easy and fast regime creation in the way in which it had hoped. Being part of a plan to reshape Iraq and its surrounding region to serve the long-term interests of the United States, the removal of the Iraqi regime from the political scene now seems to have been the easiest step. As the post-Saddam Hussein era is releasing long-suppressed political forces with agendas different from those of Washington, the establishment of a stable pro-American Iraqi regime seems increasingly in the balance for the US.

Creating a new regime is a difficult process, even under the best circumstances, and evidence suggests that the establishment of a docile Iraqi political system is going to be an especially formidable undertaking. Not only have many states outside the "coalition of the willing" clearly expressed their opposition to a US puppet regime in Baghdad, an increasing number of Iraqis are demonstrating their resentment toward such a project, in one form or another. The message behind such expression of resentment is very simple: although the Americans have started their regime-creation process, many obstacles will likely make its final outcome different from the hoped-for one. The "liberated" Iraqis now seem to have opted to take full advantage of the "democracy" created not by any deliberate effort, but as an inevitable outcome of a power vacuum, a natural result of the sudden fall of a dictatorship. In the absence of meaningful efforts and truly democratic political parties, such democracy characterized mainly by a limited degree of free expression of political views will likely last as long as the current anarchy and lawlessness persist. In the meantime, the existing political environment will encourage the dissatisfied and disenchanted Iraqis to express their long-suppressed political demands, including the creation of a representative, accountable and democratic government.

Logically, this type of government should be brought to power by the Iraqis themselves, who could also decide at a later point to bring it down through elections should it fail to meet their expectations. Of course, the achievement of democracy must be a desirable objective in a normal situation. However, securing the US and the British national interests, which was the main objective behind the regime-change process in Iraq, makes the formation of a new regime accountable to the Iraqis contrary to the US and British interests. The latter requires a government in Baghdad responsible to the Americans and the British. Among Iraqis, the Shi'ites, accounting for 60 percent of the population, have so far been the most vocal emerging political force. Having the bitter memory of a long period of suppression by the minority Arab Sunnis during the brutal regime of Saddam, they seem unwilling to accept another long round of exclusion from the political sphere and social and economic marginalization. They have made this point in a variety of forms.

Last week, the Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SAIRI), the major organized political group of the Iraqi Shi'ites headquartered in Iran, refused to attend a US "tent" conference tasked with the creation of a pro-American government. A few thousand of its supporters demonstrated in the nearby city of Nassiriya in support of their party's policy. This was the first reported mass political activity with a clear stated message of opposition to any imposed US regime and to the occupation of Iraq by the coalition forces. Another example is the selection of Mohammed Mohsen al-Zubaidi as the head of the interim local government of Baghdad. Being an Iraqi dissident living in exile in Iran, he was selected on his return to Iraq, according to the Iranian news agency, IRNA. Quoting al-Jazeera TV network, IRNA reported that "the interim government of Baghdad will be commissioned with the task of restoring security and stability in the Iraqi capital, as well as seeing into the mending of the water and electricity facilities of the city". According to the report, al-Zubaidi will hold his position until free elections can be held at an unspecified time. Reportedly, his selection was the result of "heavy consultations with prominent personalities residing in Baghdad".

It is not yet clear whether the US military has permitted or accepted the formation and the operation of the interim government of Baghdad. Nor is it clear whether it recognizes the selection of al-Zubaidi. Notwithstanding these unknowns and the predictable limited power of any institution functioning under occupation, the sheer selection of an Iraqi dissident returning from exile in Iran symbolically indicated that a democratic political system would not likely be in the best interest of the Americans. By guaranteeing the Iraqis a right to choose whomever they see fit for various positions, this system could, and will likely, facilitate the ascension to power of those who have no commitment to, if not being totally against, the creation of a pro-American political system.

The political views of al-Zubaidi are not known. His living in Iran does not necessarily mean he is committed to promoting the Iranian government's ideology and interests. Iran's geographical location as a neighboring state on hostile terms with the Saddam regime turned that country into a safe haven for a wide range of Iraqi dissidents, secular and religious, Shi'ite and Sunni, Arab and Kurd alike. A well-known example is the case of two major Kurdish groups in control of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have representative offices in Iran and enjoy the Iranian government's support, although they subscribe to secular political views and have friendly ties with the United States, a state hostile toward Iran. However, given al-Zubaidi's residence in Iran, one could presume that he should have a non-hostile and possibly positive view toward his former host. Added to the growing popularity of the SAIRI in Iraq, his selection demonstrates that, despite the US hope, the creation and the survival of a desired puppet regime in Iraq will not necessarily be a sure bet under the current "democratic" circumstances.

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