Global Policy Forum

By Salah Hemeid

US President George W Bush said Monday that he would make good on his promise to bring stability to Iraq, and that Iraqis of all faiths and ethnic backgrounds could be assured of a voice in their new government.

Speaking in Dearborn, Michigan, to an audience made up primarily of Iraqi Americans, Bush said the United States would stand by Iraq as it worked towards a representative government and a role as an anchor for regional stability. "America pledged to rid Iraq of an oppressive regime, and we kept our word," he said to cheers from the crowd. "America now pledges to help Iraqis build a prosperous and peaceful nation, and we will keep our word again," he insisted.

As Bush was speaking, about 300 Iraqi political figures wrapped up a meeting held in Baghdad at the invitation of the United States and Britain. Attendees agreed to hold a conference in a month to begin selecting a post-war government for Iraq. It was the second such meeting that Washington said it had called to pave the way for a democratic Iraqi government. The first was held earlier this month in the ancient city of Ur in southern Iraq.

Monday's 10-hour session brought together Iraqis from most parts of the country and most religious and ethnic factions. The Bush administration's envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad, said afterward that the national conference was to select a transitional government and determine whether Iraq should be ruled by a leadership council or a single head of state.

However, clear differences among the delegates emerged with respect to involvement by the United States. Exiles, for the most part, sought a diminished role for Washington, while Iraqis who had remained in the country generally expressed hope that the Americans would have a direct role in the interim period to prepare for elections. The exiles seem to be distancing themselves from the US amidst widespread talk that they rode into the country atop US tanks so as to hijack power and install themselves as Iraq's new rulers.

The extraordinarily tight security for Monday's gathering -- a perimeter was established a mile or so away by American forces -- gave the meeting an atmosphere that was a world apart from the situation in Baghdad where the police have yet to appear on the streets and workers haven't been paid. Near the conference hall thousands of Iraqis denounced the meeting, many of them chanting, "No to America, No to Saddam, Yes to Islam".

An increasing number of Iraqis appear to agree with these sentiments, and are eager to see American forces go home. Even worse for the Americans, though, about 50 men and boys, mostly from the Tikrit area, piled into pickups and drove down a main Baghdad thoroughfare around midday, firing guns into the air to celebrate Saddam's 66th birthday. The men, most of them farmers, brandished an array of modern weapons, including heavy machine-guns and assault rifles. "Saddam is all we have known," they shouted.

For the Americans, "Yes to Islam" in effect means "Yes to Iranian-style militant Islam." With Shi'ite Muslims forming some 60 per cent of Iraq's population, a free vote could produce an Islamist-oriented government with close ties to the historically anti-American Shi'ite clerics who have governed Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution. US officials have said they believe the implementation of such a system would be a disaster for Iraq and would revive Khomeini's calls to export the Islamic revolution. Defence Secretary Donald H Rumsfeld said the United States will not allow a religious government like Iran's to take hold in Iraq.

Washington will have to face up to the harsh reality of Iraq's complex political and social landscape: as vanquisher of Saddam's regime, it aims to reconstruct the country, which entails staying around. As liberator, though, it must be responsive to Iraqi wishes.

What are the options? If US forces leave Iraq abruptly, anarchy and chaos would reign. Stay too long, they will face an anti-imperialist backlash. Hold elections for a new government too fast, and an Iranian-style Islamist regime would probably come to power. Station an occupation force there, and national resistance would rear up.

Many analysts fear that Bush, who is touting his administration's efforts to sow the seeds of democracy in the rubble of Saddam's toppled dictatorship, will soon realise the difficulty of setting up a full-fledged democracy in Iraq and might, instead, opt to pave the way for another Iraqi strongman. Such a possibility should not be ruled out. After all, nation building can hardly be considered the United State's best export.

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