Global Policy Forum

By John van Schaik

A new proposal designed to break the United Nations deadlock over who will control the rebuilding of Iraq would keep the UN in charge of supplying food and medicine to Iraqi citizens, while proposing the creation of a reconstruction fund under an international umbrella that would also supervise Iraq's oil exports. Some UN Security Council members -- believed to include the UK, France, and Germany -- are pushing the plan aimed at bridging the divide between US hawks, who oppose international involvement in Iraqi oil sales and reconstruction, and Russia, which wants the UN to have total control over such activity.

Diplomats at the UN say the Security Council debate is paralyzed, mainly because the US has not given the council any clues as to how it wants to deal with Iraq's future, but say they hope the compromise plan will encourage the US to continue a dialogue with the international community, rather than going it alone. "Everybody at the council agrees that a reconstruction fund should be transparent and have some international oversight," one diplomat said, who conceded that the US has yet to sign off on that notion. A US draft resolution is expected next week, but it is undecided whether it will propose a step-by-step approach to untangling the legal intricacies of Iraqi sanctions or an approach that would deal with all issues in one swoop. The resolution is expected to spark an intense debate at the UN, reminiscent of that from before the US-led invasion of Iraq on Mar. 20, which proceeded without UN consent. Diplomats say that Washington has not yet consulted Russia, France, or China -- the other permanent members of the Security Council, besides the US and the UK, with veto power.

Iraq reconstruction is at the center of a number of issues with which the US and the UN are grappling, including the lifting or suspension of international sanctions against Iraq, the recognition of a new Iraqi governing authority, and the question of weapons inspections -- which are all interlinked. The debate on rebuilding Iraq is focusing on the UN's oil-for-food program. The program must be renewed in some form by its Jun. 3 expiration, which has become the deadline for Security Council members to work out a modus operandi between the US and the UN.

Talks are complicated, however, as the Security Council deals with a legal web of related UN resolutions and international law. The political stakes are high, as the Iraq model for international cooperation, or a lack thereof, is likely to become the template for international relations in years to come, diplomats say. Under the compromise plan, the UN would ship and distribute emergency aid for as long as current funds last, which could be well over half a year. A total of $13 billion has accrued under the oil-for-food program, which started in 1996 and allowed Iraq to sell oil and buy goods and services with part of the proceeds. Directly available funds for food and medicine are an estimated $6 billion. The UN would transfer $7 billion, set aside for a wide range of goods -- from fertilizers to fire trucks -- in a reconstruction fund that would stay in place until a new Iraqi government could take over, possibly in 18 months. Iraqi oil exports would feed the fund with fresh cash.

The US State Department favors international cooperation, but the Department of Defense is opposed. The Pentagon is adamant to sidestep the UN as much as possible, but the Pentagon would sign off on the UN dealing with humanitarian aid, as it has a tested delivery system in place for food and medicine. In the wake of the political infighting on Iraq, the Pentagon has secured control of reconstruction and security, and the establishment of a new Iraqi government, while the State Department is now in charge of humanitarian aid. But the Pentagon considers Iraqi oil sales part of its domain -- not the State Department's -- and Pentagon lawyers are investigating ways to restart Iraqi oil exports outside international control. UN resolutions still authorize Iraq's state oil marketing organization Somo to sell oil. Somo will have to be legally replaced to restart Iraqi oil exports. Oil companies say they want a solid legal regime in place before they load Iraqi crude. Engineers in Iraq say that Iraq's oil output could rise to well over the country's 400,000 barrels per day of domestic demand later this month, and that output in the south could increase to some 800,000 b/d by late June.

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