Global Policy Forum

By Pascal Ceaux et Beatrice Gurrey

The Head of State had to evoke the international situation during his " Greetings to the French" Tuesday December 31. France, unlike the United States, argues for a "two step" process and demands a new Security Council vote of the UN before any intervention.

Jacques Chirac, who has been extraordinarily active on the diplomatic scene since his reelection May 5, evoked the international situation in a few words during the first greetings of his fifth year- his eighth such message since he's been at the Elysee- broadcast Tuesday December 31, at 8h on French television channels, TF1, FR2, FR3, M6.

While as of January 1 France takes a one month Presidency of the UN Security Council, the President's counselors unremittingly recall that on the question of war with Iraq, " France maintains freedom of opinion and intends to keep it to the end," i.e. up to the moment a decision is taken, "if it must be."

According to a government source, the hypothesis of American intervention becomes ever more plausible. President George W. Bush appears all the more determined as he" needs a political victory", suggests one minister. In these conditions, it would be very difficult for France to abstain from any participation, even if it were to be only logistical support, to avoid being shunted to the sidelines during the reconstruction of a new Iraq after Saddam Hussein.

At the Elysee Palace, however, they hammer that we must "stop acting as if war were inevitable and imminent". The Defense Minister, Michele Alliot-Marie, repeated this message in Le Parisien-Dimanche (The Sunday Parisian) Decemeber 29, "War is always the worst solution: one must do everything to avoid it. First bring Iraq to respect the decisions of the UN and eliminate its arms of mass destruction." In the daily, La Montagne, of December 27, Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin claimed that war is still "avoidable" and that it was "the last of extreme measures."

The Presidential entourage emphasizes that not only does France maintain its freedom of opinion, but also has succeeded, for now, in imposing respect for international law. UN Resolution 1441, "permitted the return of inspectors and the inspections are taking place under the anticipated conditions." In short, they congratulate themselves on the famous "two step process" defined by the President and "the model works".

France's strict framework for action, as Mr. Chirac has repeated many times, is the United Nations. And the only agency competent to make a decision on the quality of the inspectors' report is "the Security Council". After Hans Blix, the Head Inspector of the UN mission, delivers his definitive report on January 27, France hopes a second debate will take place within the international organization and that a new resolution will be voted before any military intervention.

FAVORABLE REACTION IN THE GULF

France's position, hostile to any unilateral action of the United States and to any automatic response to any eventual lies from the Iraqi regime, has met a favorable response in the Gulf countries, neighbors of the future zone of operations. "I was struck by the sensitivity of the leaders to domestic public opinion", Secretary of State for Foreign affairs, Renaud Muselier, told Le Monde upon his return from the Gulf. " Apart from their affection and friendship for Jacques Chirac, everyone told me how grateful they were for France's diplomatic activity of the last seven months. They are pleased to hear a voice distinct from that of the Americans."

This patient and firm strategy hangs on the responses Iraq will furnish. "Iraq's interest is to cooperate actively with the UN. The Iraqis must work actively and authentically, harder than they have," notes one Elysee observer. The consequences depend on it. He emphasizes also that an eventual intervention cannot take place on the basis of "a different appreciation of reality." This is to say that the different actors must "be in agreement without ambiguity" on the reality of the situation that will have been discovered by the inspectors in Iraq. "One does not go to war if the evaluation is not clear for everyone", insists Mr. Chirac's entourage.

The prospect of a parliamentary debate on intervention in Iraq is not, however, foreseen for the moment by the Elysee. France is engaged in a diplomatic maneuver that has not yet been completed.

Translation: TruthOut French language correspondent Leslie Thatcher

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