Global Policy Forum

By Mark Landler

Chancellor Gerhard Schrí¶der of Germany used his opposition to a war against Iraq to save his political career last fall, picking up crucial antiwar votes for a come-from-behind election victory.

Now he faces the prospect of another vote on an Iraq war in the United Nations, where the constituencies are different and the potential damage of a no vote to Germany's ties with its allies, chiefly the United States, is even greater than it was during the closely fought election.

Is it any wonder that Germany's stand, once described by Mr. Schrí¶der as "clear as glass," is foggy?

Iraq, says an opposition leader, has become a sort of Scylla and Charybdis for the chancellor — a treacherous passage between the United States, which took his campaign stance as a betrayal, and Germany's pacifist voters.

Officially, the German government says it has not decided how it would vote on a United Nations resolution authorizing a military campaign. Germany took up a non-veto-bearing seat on the Security Council on Jan. 1 and will assume the Council's rotating chairmanship next month.

Some people here believe that Defense Minister Peter Struck showed the government's hand when he told a German newspaper recently that a yes vote by Germany was "no longer conceivable." But the government disavowed his remark as a "personal opinion." [Mr. Schrí¶der, who faces state elections next month, dropped hints over the weekend that Germany might vote no, or abstain. "We will not take part in a military intervention in Iraq, and that is exactly how our voting behavior will be in all international bodies," he said in a campaign speech on Saturday.]

The mixed signals are testament to the quandary facing Mr. Schrí¶der. He dearly wants to avoid further antagonizing the Bush administration. But he knows that retreating even a half-step on Iraq could cost him his coalition government, which holds a reed-thin majority in Parliament and has lost the support of the public on many other issues. "The government lives in fear of the voters, and that is causing it to make mistake after mistake," said Christian Schmidt, the foreign policy spokesman for the conservative party, the Christian Social Union.

If anything, public opposition to a war has hardened here. In a recent poll of Germans, more than 80 percent said an attack against Iraq was not justified. Much of this is a legacy of Germany's war-torn history. But it also reflects a cynicism about the motives of the White House.

"Blood for Oil," declared a headline on the cover of the influential magazine Der Spiegel, summing up the feelings of many. In late December, Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer seemed to be searching for a way out by suggesting that a second Security Council resolution might not be needed. His ambassador to the United Nations, Gunter Pleuger, repeated the idea in an interview with The New York Times.

In a rare rebuke, Mr. Schrí¶der said later, "the executive makes German foreign policy, not the diplomats." He said he wanted a second vote, pointing out that Germany is aligned in its thinking with France — except, of course, that France has pledged to support a war if it is mandated by the United Nations.

Conservative leaders, still bitter at the way Mr. Schrí¶der seized on the Iraq issue to derail their candidate, Edmund Stoiber, said the chancellor could not evade Germany's international responsibilities. "Germany cannot vote differently than other Western countries," said Wolfgang Schaüble, the foreign affairs spokesman for the opposition Christian Democratic Union. "That would be a disaster for the Atlantic Alliance." He added that abstaining would be "ridiculous."

Voting yes to a war, however, would put Mr. Schrí¶der on dangerous ground with his supporters. He won re-election largely because of the popularity of the Green Party, the junior partner of his Social Democrats. Deeply pacifist, the Greens show few signs of flexibility, unlike in 2001, when they grudgingly acquiesced in sending German troops to Afghanistan.

"There is no situation I can imagine today where Germany would support military action," said Angelika Beer, the co-leader of the Greens. Ms. Beer added that Germany was "striving for a common European position." That would be a change. When Mr. Schrí¶der first came out against a war last summer, he did not even bother to brief other European leaders, breeding ill will. Now, though, he seems intent on consulting allies, particularly France. Michael Naumann, a former German culture minister who publishes the weekly paper Die Zeit, said the chancellor had "learned his lesson." Mr. Naumann said doubts about a war were growing in Europe, even in Britain.

As for the rift with the United States, analysts point out that the chancellor has begun to say that Germany would not actively take part in a campaign, a subtle shift from his earlier blanket refusal to participate.

Germany has already acceded to requests from the United States and NATO that would give it more than an incidental role. It would allow the Pentagon to send troops to and from its military bases here. It has granted American warplanes unfettered access to German airspace.

Mr. Schrí¶der has also indicated that in the event of a war, he would allow NATO surveillance planes, with German crews, to patrol the skies over Turkey. The opposition said such a move would require parliamentary approval, since those troops would be in a combat role. The government insists that the mission would be defensive, because Turkey is a NATO member.

"We're very aware of the dangers of `mission creep,' " said Gernot Erler, a foreign policy spokesman for the chancellor's party. "We don't want to cause further problems for the Americans. But we have deep convictions on this issue."

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