January 22, 2003
Chancellor Gerhard Schrí¶der's outright rejection of any war on Iraq signals an ideological showdown between mainland Europe and the US-British camp, says Roger Boyes.
How important is Herr Schrí¶der's rejection of war with Iraq?
Very important, because it is a totally unambiguous. Herr Schrí¶der said: "Don't expect Germany to approve a resolution which would give legitimacy to war." It is now more difficult within the UN Security Council for the US to build up a war-approving vote. There are two camps developing – mainland Europe, and America and Britain.
People are now asking: Is this about more than Iraq? It probably is, as it is about how and with whom we ally ourselves and influence the new world order. It is about who is in charge and what kind of world we want. Until now it has been done rather discreetly. Now it is confrontational.
What does Germany's new friendship with France mean to the Iraqi question?
Today France and Germany are celebrating the 40th anniversary of their friendship treaty – they are obviously closing ranks on the Iraq issue. President Jacques Chirac of France said this morning that "Germany and France have the same judgement on the Iraq crisis" and that the two countries felt "everything must be done to avoid war".
Since France has a veto vote on the Security Council, Herr Schrí¶der's speech becomes more than a statement of German pacifism and is a functional challenge to the US attempt to dictate terms.
For these two countries, what legitimises a united Europe is the complete rejection of war in all its forms. If you base your whole philosophy as a European Union on that, then ultimately you are going to get into a problem with a world that sees war as an instrument of diplomatic change. It hits right at the core of the European idea. It has got to come to some sort of ideological showdown. Britain does not have that philosophy, but it is silly to pretend that it is not in the EU.
Will it make any difference to any US decision to attack Iraq?
The most significant thing is getting the French on board. They were always sceptical about American power but today you can see that they are actually almost at one on what should be done. And France has the power of veto on the Security Council.
Germany takes chairmanship of the Security Council next month. It will be a focus for all those people in the Security Council who are unhappy with the speed with which the administration is moving towards war. It is clear that China, Russia and France, who are permanent members of the Security Council, are all in varying degrees hostile to war.
We do not know yet if President Bush will take European criticism seriously or not. But a testing time will come after January 27 when the UN weapons inspectors are due to deliver their report on Iraq. Then we will see if the US does not seek international legitimacy for military action or if it listens to critics and slows down.
Has German politics influenced Herr Schrí¶der's statement?
The idea of war on Iraq is deeply unpopular here. The last poll showed that 69 per cent of Germans were against it and I think sentiment has grown since then.
This was a mobilising issue in the general election in September last year when Herr Schrí¶der won beating an anti-war drum. But in the upcoming local elections there are different issues – people are concentrating on schools and roads – and local politicians do not have the power to make war or peace.
The Greens, who form part of the coalition Government with Herr Schrí¶der's Social Democrats, play a role. They are steadfastly against any war and legitimisation of any war. But there is a German pacifist tradition and some members of Herr Schrí¶der's party are more pacifist than the Greens. This all adds to the argument for taking the Chancellor's statement more seriously, we cannot put it down to electioneering. Everything I have seen and heard and read suggests that this is not about scraping up a few constituencies here and there, it is about what Europe stands for.
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