Global Policy Forum

By Nevine Khalil

Next month, President Hosni Mubarak will be travelling to Germany and France -- the loudest European detractors of Washington's call for war against Iraq -- to speak about the future of the region. Mubarak's consultations will come in the wake of his continued contacts with Arab leaders over the past few weeks.

Today, Mubarak is scheduled to hold talks with Bahrain's King Hamad bin Eissa Al- Khalifa, whose country is hosting the next Arab summit at the end of March. Next week, Mubarak will be meeting with Algerian President Abdel-Aziz Bouteflika.

Earlier this week, the Egyptian president was exchanging perspectives with the leaders of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait. At both stops he discussed the fruitless six-way meeting which took place in Istanbul on 23 January between Iraq's neighbours. Mubarak's meetings also dealt with the repercussions of war for the region.

Mubarak was also very candid regarding Cairo's position about the ramifications of a US-led war against Iraq when he met with General Tommy Franks, the commander of US forces in the Gulf region, on Tuesday. Franks' visit came one day after UN weapons inspectors presented a report to the Security Council criticising Iraq for not fully cooperating with their mission, and asking for more time to assess Iraq's stockpile of weapons of mass destruction.

In an interview published on Tuesday, Mubarak warned that a US-led war against Iraq was inevitable if Baghdad continues to block the inspectors' mission. "It is clear that a strike is on the way, unless Iraq complies with international resolutions and stops blocking the inspection process," Mubarak told Emirati newspaper Al-Ittihad. He predicted that strikes would take place "if there are any obstacles hindering inspectors' access to any site, including presidential palaces. Whatever is not inspected will be destroyed", Mubarak said, stressing the urgency of his appeal, and saying that "the US is determined to destroy weapons of mass destruction at any cost." Mubarak added that Baghdad is "usually" not responsive to Egypt's warnings, "but we sometimes feel they agree."

Mubarak's statements echoed what he had said on 23 January while inaugurating the International Book Fair, where he also warned that Saddam "must realise that what the US is doing is not a bluff".

Mubarak's chief political adviser Osama El-Baz headed a high-level delegation that went to the US on Monday to discuss ways of resolving the standoff with Iraq peacefully, as well as Israeli aggression against the Palestinians. "Egypt fears chaos and instability resulting from the breakdown of the peace process and the repercussions of a war against Iraq," El-Baz said as he embarked on the trip, which includes stops in Washington and New York. "We are calling on the US to be patient, to give inspectors a chance, and to cooperate with all the members of the UN Security Council, especially the permanent ones."

In Paris, the capital city of one of those permanent security council member states, Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher indicated that he thought a peaceful solution was still possible. Maher was speaking after talks with French President Jacques Chirac, who had himself spoken earlier with the presidents of China and Russia, both of which also have veto power in the Security Council. "It is always positive to move forward up until the last minute of the final hour," Maher said. Cairo and Paris see eye-to-eye on the need to give inspectors more time to continue their work. A spokeswoman for Chirac said that he was "favourable to the continuation of the work of the inspectors, who must be able to benefit from Iraq's full and complete cooperation". Maher agreed, noting, "I don't think we should be impatient about the inspectors' work."

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