Global Policy Forum

By Richard W. Stevenson

President Bush all but set a timetable for war today, warning Saddam Hussein that Iraq has "weeks, not months" to disarm or face an invasion led by the United States.

Buoyed by fresh backing for its hard-line position from eight European leaders, the administration said that 9 nations had made some commitment of troops if war came and that more than 20 had pledged full access to military bases, airstrips and ports.

Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage, testifying to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, declined to identify the countries, but said that "should a military activity be required, there's more going on" than might be publicly apparent.

Reflecting concern about how a war might lead to refugees' fleeing Iraq or neighboring countries, Mr. Bush directed Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, in a memorandum made public today, to free up $15 million from a special fund to prepare for any "humanitarian emergency in the Middle East" that might result from military action there.

"Should we require military action, shortly after our troops go in, will go food and medicine and supplies to the Iraqi people," Mr. Bush told reporters at the White House. "We will, of course, win militarily if we have to. But we'll also want to make sure we win the peace as well."

The White House said Mr. Bush had not made a decision to take military action, and he said he would welcome a decision by Mr. Hussein to avert bloodshed by voluntarily going into exile, a possibility floated anew by Saudi officials.

But the president appeared increasingly close to making a final decision, and is expected to map a strategy for the next phase of diplomacy on Friday at Camp David with his most stalwart ally on Iraq, Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain.

The administration has suggested that it will put off a decision at least until Feb. 14, when United Nations weapons inspectors are to submit their next report to the Security Council, but not much beyond that. In an interview on Wednesday, Hans Blix, the chief inspector for chemical and biological weapons, challenged several Bush administration conclusions about his report.

The administration, faced with calls from critics to slow what they have called a rush to war, continued today to press its case — to foreign leaders, to Congress and to the public — that Mr. Hussein's government posed a grave threat to the United States and the world and had to be dealt with soon. Asked about links between Al Qaeda and Iraq, Mr. Armitage said there were indications that the assassination in October of an American diplomat in Jordan, Laurence Foley, had been orchestrated by a Qaeda operative based in Baghdad.

Other officials said Mr. Powell would have strong evidence that Iraq is an immediate threat to the region and the world when he speaks to the Security Council on Wednesday.

Still, members of both parties, including lawmakers who support confronting Mr. Hussein, said today that the administration had not provided a clear, consistent and compelling rationale for military action.

"You have to meet a higher standard of proof, not legally have to meet it, but practically, to enhance our greater interest," Senator Joseph R. Biden, Democrat of Delaware, told Mr. Armitage. "We have to meet a higher standard of proof in order to convince the Security Council and the thousands and thousands of people out there — millions — who do not understand and are not ready to believe."

Diplomats said Saudi Arabia had signaled a willingness to use its influence to win support for military action from all 15 members of the Security Council, a number of which, including France, have suggested that they would object to war on the timetable apparently being contemplated by Mr. Bush.

After meeting with Mr. Bush today, the Saudi ambassador here, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, and the foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, told reporters that they had not discussed the idea, floated by other Saudi officials, of offering Mr. Hussein exile in another country.

But another diplomat familiar with the Saudi proposal said it was "absolutely still a valid idea."

The diplomat described a scenario in which the United Nations votes to endorse a strike against Iraq, but provides for a last-ditch offer of amnesty and exile for Mr. Hussein by an Arab-led mission. "For this to be effective, it would have to be done at the last minute," he said.

The terms of an amnesty for Mr. Hussein and his inner circle would need to be explicit and enshrined in a United Nations resolution in order for the Iraqis to trust it, he said. "You can't present an option to the Iraqis until everyone's signed off on this," he said.

Asked by reporters about the idea before a meeting in the Oval Office with Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, Mr. Bush suggested that he was open to the idea of exile, if skeptical that Mr. Hussein would ever agree to it.

"Hopefully, the pressure of the free world will convince Mr. Saddam Hussein to relinquish power," he said. "And should he choose to leave the country along with a lot of the other henchmen who have tortured the Iraqi people, we would welcome that, of course."

The president said he regarded the use of military force as "my last choice, not my first."

He said he agreed with Condoleezza Rice, his national security adviser, that the time for United Nations weapons inspections and diplomacy to work will be limited to "a matter of weeks, not months."

Ari Fleischer, the White House spokesman, said Mr. Bush's comments were "a message to Saddam Hussein, and to our friends and allies, that there is no point in repeating the mistakes that have been made before, which allow Saddam Hussein to bob and weave, to hide and dodge, to cheat and retreat."

Administration officials hailed a statement today by the leaders of eight European nations — Britain, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Hungary, Poland, Denmark and the Czech Republic — that was published in The Wall Street Journal and a number of European newspapers. Slovakia later signed it as well. In it, the leaders signaled that they would stick by the United States as the Security Council debates whether to throw the weight of the United Nations behind any military action against Iraq.

Sitting beside Mr. Bush in the Oval Office, Mr. Berlusconi said that if the United States, Europe, Russia and other United Nations members stuck together, "then Saddam Hussein will understand that he will have no other option but to reveal the arms and destroy them."

Mr. Armitage, when asked during his Congressional testimony whether the United States would seek explicit authorization for an invasion from the Security Council, said a new resolution was "desirable," but "not absolutely necessary."

But the White House also received warnings that any quick moves toward war without a domestic and international consensus could create problems at home and abroad.

Speaking to reporters, Democratic Senators Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts and Robert C. Byrd of West Virginia renewed their push for a Congressional vote on using force before any military action begins, saying the administration has not addressed questions over casualties, costs and a postwar Iraq. "Before the tanks roll through the desert, we ought to have an opportunity for the Senate to express itself," Mr. Kennedy said.

Pakistan's foreign minister, Khurshid Kasuri, warned after meeting with Mr. Bush and Ms. Rice that a war could lead to an anti-American backlash among Muslims.

"There has been a reaction to the events in Afghanistan which the government of Pakistan is doing its best to control," he said. "There will be a reaction to the events in Iraq, and I want our friends in the United States to be mindful of those. There will be reaction not only in Pakistan, also all the Islamic world — there'll be reaction even in Europe."

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