Global Policy Forum

By Pierre-Antoine Donnet

The US-led war to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein enters its second week with more questions raised than have been answered. One of the few certainties is that the most powerful army in the world and its British allies have already unleashed an enormous bombardment of cruise missiles and ultra-sophisticated bombs on Baghdad and other targets, as well as having deployed a force of many thousands of men inside Iraq. But so far it has been to no avail as it appears that Saddam and his principal lieutenants are not only still alive, having survived the onslaught on Baghdad, but are still in control of much of the country and showing little or no signs of wavering.

For the time being, it looks as though Washington's so-called "shock and awe" tactics are just not working. The almost daily appearance of Saddam on Iraqi television screens, addressing his people in a strong, calm voice is a constant reminder to the Americans that they are a long way from winning the psychological war, which is every bit as important as that being fought out on the battlefields of southern Iraq. Perhaps the only other certainty to have arisen is the massive blow the war has dealt the world economy.

Far from injecting a much-needed shot in the arm to the world's stock exchanges, as many financial pundits confidently predicted, the past seven days have seen a general air of stagnation following a headlong fall at the start of the conflict, with the price of oil remaining relatively high. Horst Koehler, director general of the International Monetary Fund, told a German weekly that a world recession could not be ruled out in case of a protracted war in Iraq. A week into the war, that remains perhaps the greatest uncertainty, the leading unanswered question - how long can the conflict actually last, considering that according to so many American military experts it should have been over in a matter of days.

The bulk of the coalition forces are still a long way from Baghdad, their progress hampered from the outset by aggressive and spirited Iraqi resistance, not to mention the appalling weather conditions which have seen sandstorms hold up the troops' progress. Another question hanging in the air is the possibility of whether the coalition has the ability to eliminate Saddam and his entourage, as with each passing day his stature as a hero and a potential martyr grows as he is increasingly seen in the Arab world as a defender of the faith. Equally uncertain is the impact the war will have on the general stability of the region.

Grassroots Arab opinion, already indignant over American backing for Israel against the Palestinians, is increasingly angry over the war, as much in Arab capitals friendly towards Washington, like Cairo and Amman, as in those overtly hostile. While the governments in Egypt and Jordan, for example, do not seem unduly threatened by public opinion at present, there is no indication how long the status quo will hold if the war starts to drag on. There are questions, too, over just how the Iraqi people are greeting the arrival of American and British troops on their soil. Scenes of joy as the convoys pass have been rare enough and it remains to be seen just how the people of Baghdad will greet the "invading" forces come to "overrun" their capital.

Yet before they can consider storming the gates of the citadel, the coalition still has to encounter the fearsome Republican Guard along the road to Baghdad. The Guard are the elite corps of Saddam's army and represent a serious threat to the allied advance. Under normal circumstances, they are a force to be reckoned with and if they think they have nothing left to lose they could be an even more formidable adversary. Even then, once they are in the capital, the coalition forces could find themselves facing a long, drawn-out street battle before they get within sight of overthrowing Saddam, for he well knows that his own forces know the terrain and will hold an early whip hand when it comes to urban warfare.

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