Global Policy Forum

The collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime will send shockwaves of joy and alarm around the world. Although the war is not yet over, the fall of Baghdad means it is all but won. In 21 days, US and British forces ended 35 years of Ba'ath party misrule and the towering tyranny of one man. Even as statues of the vanquished dictator crashed to the ground and jubilant Iraqis ground his hated image beneath their feet, the fate of the real, flesh-and-blood Saddam was still a mystery. Finding him and bringing him to justice is a more urgent priority than ever. Until the body of Saddam is handed up, dead or alive, until the spectre of Saddam is finally exorcised, many Iraqis will have trouble believing they are really free.

All over Iraq, and beyond, the shock of war is being replaced by the shock of the new. It will take some getting used to. Iraqis' problems are not at an end; they merely change in form and scale. Baghdad, let alone Iraq as a whole, is not yet secure. Saddam's weapons of mass destruction have not been found. There may yet be a last stand in Tikrit. There may be hard fighting still ahead, as Dick Cheney warned yesterday. There may be yet more civilian casualties to add to the uncounted thousands, more tragedies like that of 12-year-old Ali Ismail Abbas, who lost his arms, and Noor Sabah, the little girl in the red Alice band killed by American bombs. For them and many like them, victory is meaningless. But the swiftness of Saddam's rout reduces the chances of continuing carnage. For this relief, much thanks.

Iraq's state of shock, replacing its state of siege, will have many difficult manifestations. Already, revenge and reprisal intermingle with celebration. Already, excitement at a beckoning, better future is tempered by present, urgent human need. Already, the same British troops who have performed so professionally are being forced to take on policing duties, trying to prevent looting and keep the peace while seeking trustworthy locals to fill the power vacuum. Parts of Baghdad and other cities are close to anarchy. Overnight, political authority ceased to exist in a country which hitherto has known only the fiercest political control. Such tendencies to chaos, unless quickly curbed, threaten civil conflicts sucking in thinly-spread allied troops.

The shock of the day weighed heavily on some - but not all - Arab hearts. Many viewers in Cairo turned off televisions in disgust. Some see this, wrongly, as an Arab and Muslim defeat. While they had no cause to love Saddam, the leaders of Iran and Syria - or even Libya or North Korea - will shiver at his passing. This unprecedented show of US offensive power sends a daunting message. Who knows which way the Abrams tank barrels will swivel next? And who in Damascus, Tehran or Riyadh is entirely sure that the Iraqi people's release, although largely involuntary, will not find willing emulators there? If reconstruction works, and that is an enormous "if", a resource-rich, democratic Iraq may become the throbbing engine of the Middle East. The political ramifications of that do indeed invite shock and awe. On one level the US-British success to date is deeply impressive and on another, troubling. Saddam's overthrow is a great boon. But Iraq's "liberation" must not lead to internal destabilisation or external exploitation. Pre-war promises must be fulfilled; there must be long-term follow-through and a major rethink, too. For George Bush's America must understand that Iraq does not mean future pre-emptive, unilateral, illegal war-making is now somehow OK. Sometimes war proves unstoppable; but it is seldom OK.

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