Global Policy Forum

By Patrick E. Tyler

Saudi Arabia's leaders have made far-reaching decisions to prepare for an era of military disengagement from the United States, to enact what Saudi officials call the first significant democratic reforms at home, and to rein in the conservative clergy that has shared power in the kingdom.

Senior members of the royal family say the decisions, reached in the past month, are the result of continuing debate over Saudi Arabia's future.

These princes say that Crown Prince Abdullah will ask President George W. Bush to withdraw all American armed forces from the kingdom as soon as the campaign to disarm Iraq has concluded. A spokesman for the royal family said he could not comment.

Pentagon officials asked about the Saudi moves said they had not heard of any plan so specific as a request for a complete American withdrawal. Since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, in which 15 of the 19 hijackers involved were Saudis, members of both parties in Congress have urged broad reform in the conservative kingdom.

Until Abdullah issues the decrees, it remains to be seen whether he will be the first son of Saudi Arabia's modern unifier, King Abdulaziz, to undertake significant political change.

The presence of foreign - especially American - forces since the Gulf War of 1991 has been a contentious issue in Saudi Arabia and has spurred the terrorism of Osama bin Laden, the disowned scion of one of the kingdom's wealthiest families, and his followers in Al Qaeda.

Saudi officials said the departure of American soldiers would set the stage for an announcement that Saudis - but probably not women, at least initially - would begin electing representatives to provincial assemblies and then to a national assembly.

The goal would be the gradual expansion, over six years, of democratic writ until a fully democratic national assembly emerged, a senior official said. The debate over the need for reform is described by Saudi royal family members as part of the post-Sept. 11 reckoning to head off foreign and domestic pressures that threaten the royal family and its dominion over the Arabian Peninsula, with its reserves.

As the United States prepares for what could be a long military occupation of Iraq, the Saudi royal family does not want to appear as if it is being pressured into reform, according to Saudis familiar with the debate. To be seen as acting under U.S. sway might undermine the monarchy's credibility before a population that is increasingly young, unemployed, pious and anti-American.

Still, the departure of all American military forces from Saudi Arabia would be a potentially troubling milestone in the history of the relationship that dates from World War II.

Since the Gulf War, when the United States dispatched 500,000 troops to the Saudi desert, a security pact has endured to confront and contain Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Thousands of American engineers have built supply depots, air bases and a state-of-the-art air operations headquarters south of Riyadh that were intended to join the two countries in long-lasting military collaboration.

Even if the troops do leave, Saudi and American officials said, security cooperation would likely continue, and they noted that the soldiers could return if the Saudi rulers faced a new threat.

The Saudi reform debate, according to one participant, has taken place in an atmosphere of opposition from senior princes, including Prince Nayef ibn Abdulaziz, the minister of interior, and to a lesser extent, Prince Sultan ibn Abdulaziz, the minister of defense.

Sultan, who family members say has been privately designated as the next crown prince by Abdullah, was described by a family member as "moderately against it or, stating it another way, very reluctantly for it."

A royal family member said that despite opposing views, senior princes would support the decisions of Prince Abdullah "when he makes them" because "the royal family will always stick together, especially in times of crisis."

The reported decisions have enthusiastic support from Saudi Arabia's influential business community, and from the second tier of senior princes in their 50s and 60s who have had the most contact with the West. Among those family members are Prince Saud al Faisal, the Princeton-educated foreign minister, and Prince Bandar ibn Sultan, son of the defense minister and a former F-15 fighter pilot who has been ambassador to the United States since 1983.

For now, a senior prince said, Crown Prince Abdullah, the day-to-day ruler since King Fahd fell ill in 1995, has overcome resistance with the admonition, "Isn't it better if I do this now before I have to do it later?"

The senior prince added, "After the last shot is fired in Iraq, it will be a good time to say that we have won, and that we both agree there is no longer any need for American forces."

He continued, "But the real politics of this is to win the hearts and minds of a majority of the people."

Another senior prince said, "The fact is, reform is imperative and not a choice; so is participatory government." There will always be opponents to reform, this prince said, but the family is capable of facing opposition "with resolve, but with understanding for the other view."

If he issues the decrees, Abdullah will have to contend with those religious authorities who will resist reforms and a change in the fundamentalist contract that has empowered a clergy who practice one of Islam's most conservative interpretations, based on the teachings of Sheikh Mohammed ibn Abdul Wahhab and sometimes referred to as Wahhabism.

American specialists on Saudi Arabia said it appeared that Abdullah was seeking a national consensus to maneuver around the most conservative elements of the clergy by appealing to the influential Saudi business establishment, the military and tribal leaders.

"If this turns out to be solid," said Richard Murphy, a leading Arabist who served as President Ronald Reagan's assistant secretary of state for the Middle East, "it is a dramatic demonstration of leadership."

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