Global Policy Forum

By Dan Hoover

Former ambassador to Saudi Arabia John West said this weekend that the Bush administration's plans for a pre-emptive strike against Iraq are "an absolute disaster." West said the administration risks inflaming the Islamic world and would further destabilize the volatile region with its go-it-alone policy without affecting the root problem there.

Military analysts said Friday that the opening attacks by U.S. and British forces could begin in mid- March. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are now enough troops and equipment in place to launch an invasion. "The evidence does not persuade me" that Iraq and its dictator, Saddam Hussein, are a clear and present danger to the United States," West told The Greenville News. Instead, he would pursue a policy of containment, as is being utilized with another prospective nuclear club member, North Korea.

West, 80, of Hilton Head, was South Carolina's governor from 1971 to 1975 and was envoy to Saudi Arabia under President Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981. He has maintained contact with Saudi friends and officials and others in the region since returning to his private law practice. He is a Democrat. He said Bush and his advisers don't fully understand the complexities of the Middle East, although "Carter understood it very well, that you'll never have a stable Middle East peace until you resolve the Palestinian-Israeli problem," the root cause of terrorism today. "If we go into Iraq, particularly without United Nations approval, we're going to create what, in my judgment, will be a chaotic situation. We'll be an occupying power with a tremendous nation-building obligation, and that's where the problem comes," West said.

Acknowledging that secret plans and intelligence reports he hasn't seen could put a different light on the postwar situation, West said, "I do know certain demographic situations" that could work against Washington's goals. He cited the 61 percent of Iraqis who are Shiite Muslims and the Shiite mullahs who run Iran.

"As one of my Arab friends said, 'You Americans go in, you can take Saddam out with some casualties, but you're going to have to occupy it for a time, maybe a couple of years. Then you'll have to have democratic elections (reflecting) your system. Then the Shiites will take control of the government and certainly have a relationship with their Islamic brothers in Iran.'" All that, West said, will make for a difficult occupation and complicate the restoration of a government in Iraq.

Without unified support going in, Washington faces postwar troubles without help from Turkey, which has problems with its Kurdish minority, and from Saudi Arabia, which has a large Palestinian population and strong grass-roots opposition with ties to terrorist groups. "I hope I'm wrong."

But Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, a staunch supporter of the administration's policy on Iraq, said West failed to consider the changes brought about by the Sept. 11 terror attacks. "It has fundamentally changed us as a people," Graham said. "We have now been shown, in the most dramatic way in the history of our nation, that terrorism unchecked is lethal to Americans and a free people."

He cited "direct, substantial and unequivocal evidence that (Saddam) is supporting the al-Qaida murderers who plotted the 9/11 attacks and who recently killed an American (diplomat) in Jordan." "The Bush Doctrine, that if you 'harbor, aid or assist a terrorist,' you're just as guilty as they are, is the appropriate doctrine post-9/11," Graham said, adding that Iraq has aligned itself "with the forces of evil, and this is a battle of the forces of good and evil." "Saddam is an imminent threat because he has the ability to empower terrorists beyond their own capabilities," Graham said.

He acknowledged a mixed reaction from the Saudis. "Secretly, they want to get rid of Saddam; at the same time, they have a substantial religious right, the Osama bin Laden crowd," Graham said.

FAIR USE NOTICE: This page contains copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Global Policy Forum distributes this material without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted material as provided for in 17 U.S.C § 107. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond fair use, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.