Global Policy Forum

By Edward Wong

Sunni Arab leaders who have been the most vocal in calling for a boycott or postponement of the coming elections say they intend to get involved in politics after the vote, including taking part in writing a permanent constitution. There is too much at stake, with the constitution to be drafted by August 2005 and full-term elections held by year's end, for Sunni groups to reject the political process, the leaders say, even if they are sticking to their denunciation of the elections.

This talk by prominent Sunnis is the most positive sign yet that there is still a chance they will take part in the political process, potentially bolstering the beleaguered American effort to plant democracy in the Middle East. Those saying they want to become involved in the process are not leaders of the Sunni-dominated insurgency, and there is no indication that the violence will abate after the vote. But some of these Sunni leaders, who include powerful clerics, have considerable influence with the guerrillas and could act as a bridge between the new government - expected to be dominated by the majority Shiites - and the insurgency.

The 275-member national assembly to be elected Sunday is to appoint a president and prime minister, draft a permanent constitution and prepare the country for full-term elections in December. There is nothing forbidding outsiders from getting involved in writing the constitution, and even the most hard-line Sunni leaders say they expect the assembly to invite them into the process.

Although Sunni participation would be good news for those who want the political process to move forward in Iraq, it is not necessarily a matter of acquiescence. In the last week, Sunni leaders have threatened to scuttle the constitution if the post-election government and American officials do not bring them in. A measure in the transitional basic law approved last spring allows just 3 of the country's 18 provinces to nullify a draft of the constitution if two-thirds of their residents vote against it in a referendum. Sunnis are a majority in at least three provinces, and Sunni leaders are now bringing up this measure as leverage to put Shiite, Kurdish and American officials on notice that the minority Sunnis expect a place in postelection politics.

"Certainly because we withdrew from the elections, that doesn't mean we won't be part of the drafting of the constitution," said Sheik Moayad Ibrahim al-Adhami, a senior member of the Muslim Scholars Association, which says it represents 3,000 mosques and is the most influential Sunni group to call for an election boycott. "The elections are one matter; the constitution is another."

"All the Sunnis must take part in drafting the constitution," added Sheik Adhami, who is the imam of Abu Hanifa Mosque, possibly the most anti-American mosque in Baghdad.

Sunni leaders have been in talks with Iraqi and American officials on how else they can get involved in the new government, even if Sunnis fare poorly in the national elections. There are proposals to make sure the new government sets aside some ministry offices for Sunnis. Some Sunni politicians are lobbying their parties to limit the boycott to national elections, thus allowing them to vie in the provincial elections, also scheduled for Sunday. John D. Negroponte, the American ambassador to Iraq, said the embassy was reaching out to "just about any Sunni group that we come into contact with" to persuade them to remain involved in politics. Hopefully those who decided "to sit or fight this round out" will become engaged after the elections, he said.

Shiite politicians say they plan to make sure Sunni Arabs are adequately represented in the new government. Ali Faisal al-Lami, an aide to Ahmad Chalabi, the former exile who is running on the most popular Shiite slate, said Shiite candidates had been in talks with Sunni tribal leaders in hostile cities like Mosul, Ramadi and Tikrit. "We will give them some positions in the cabinet and ministries," he said. An American diplomat said many Sunni politicians were "under physical pressure, and they look for assurance from us that we'll continue to engage with the Sunni Arab community." He added, "I'm spending a fair amount of my time bucking people up."

Mohsen Abdul-Hameed, the leader of the Iraqi Islamic Party, the most prominent Sunni group to withdraw from the elections, is trying to tread the fine line between catering to his anti-American constituency and staying politically involved. He said he had received a written threat from an insurgent cell not to take part in the new government, but was still in "deep negotiations" with American officials to secure a role for his party. "We will not take seats in the government, and we won't accept any appointments," Mr. Abdul-Hameed said. "But about the constitution, we will participate, and we will be involved in writing a draft of it if we're asked to do that."

The Iraqi Islamic Party's announcement of withdrawal in late December was considered a big blow to the elections because the party is popular among Sunni Arabs. But the party never removed its slate of candidates from the ballot. Mr. Abdul-Hameed said that if the slate won national assembly seats, he would not bar his candidates from taking them, as long as the candidates were not official party members.

Because of the calls for boycott and because of the dire security situation in the Sunni-dominated provinces, Iraqi and American officials fear that Sunni Arab turnout on Sunday will be low and that Sunnis will consequently regard the new government as illegitimate. Sunni Arabs ruled Iraq for decades, but were ousted from power with the toppling of Saddam Hussein, a Sunni from Tikrit. Many now chafe under the American occupation and see the elections as the means by which the Americans will install a Shiite-dominated government.

But the measure calling for a referendum on the draft constitution - as laid out in the transitional law approved last March - could actually give the Sunni Arabs huge leverage. The measure says that when Iraqis vote on the draft in October, a two-thirds decision against it in at least three provinces will invalidate it. This measure was first proposed in early 2004 and was most strongly championed by the Kurds, who wanted to be able to invoke the threat of a veto of the constitution to lobby for more autonomy. Shiite leaders opposed the measure but lost that fight.

Now, it is Sunni politicians, confronted by the real possibility of low representation in the assembly, who are threatening to call on people of the Sunni-majority provinces of Anbar, Salahuddin and Nineveh to vote down the constitution if the Sunni leaders are denied a role in drafting it. "That constitution is not going to be recognized, and people from those areas won't feel this is a true constitution for them," said Hatem al-Mukhlis, a former exile who heads the Iraqi National Movement, a Sunni Arab party that has opted to take part in the elections despite Mr. Mukhlis's deep skepticism about the process. "They'll continue fighting."

Adnan Pachachi, the most prominent secular Sunni candidate, said that after the elections, the national assembly should make it a priority to approach those groups that denounced the elections to get them to take part in writing the constitution. "There are those who feel they've been marginalized, who feel they haven't been treated fairly," he said. "It is possible to invite people from outside the national assembly to be in on the drafting of the constitution."

Like Mr. Mukhlis, Mr. Pachachi is a Sunni leader who objects to the elections, but has decided to take part to remain engaged in politics. In November, he led a call by 17 political groups for a six-month postponement of the vote, arguing that Iraq was too unstable for it to be fair. But when it became apparent the White House would not put off the elections, he decided to run for office. "We thought it would be more useful to be a part of the national assembly," he said. "It's a judgment call, whether it's more useful to be part of the process or to be outside."