November 14, 2003
After another grim week in Iraq, Paul Bremer returns to Baghdad determined to hasten the transition to Iraqi sovereignty
The rosy hue that the White House has been painting on America's occupation of Iraq is slowly fading. This week Paul Bremer, America's top man in Baghdad, skipped an appointment with the prime minister of Poland to hold urgent meetings in Washington, DC. Meanwhile, the occupation's woes deepened: at least 27 people, including 18 Italian troops, were killed in a suicide attack on a base in the previously calm southern city of Nasiriya. Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, vowed not to withdraw his country's 2,300 troops in Iraq. But Japan, chastened by Italy's tragedy, announced that it would hold off sending troops until sometime next year (previously ministers had suggested that the first Japanese contingent might arrive next month).
Mr Bremer's sudden dash back to Washington signals increased worries over Iraq's political future. A new report from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has warned that America is losing the support of Iraqis. Most Iraqis were delighted to be rid of Saddam Hussein, but the intensifying assaults on foreign troops, and Iraqis who co-operate with them, are sowing doubts about whether America can successfully stabilise the country. The CIA report, which is classified and was first disclosed by the Philadelphia Enquirer, is said to give warning that increasing numbers of Iraqis are joining the anti-American resistance.
A change of strategy seems imminent. Mr Bremer has been tight-lipped about the possibilities, but Washington is clearly hoping to fast-forward its handover of power to Iraqis. America wants to "encourage the Iraqis to assume more responsibility," President George Bush said on Thursday. Mr Bremer had previously insisted that the drafting of a constitution should precede elections (as in Afghanistan). But writing constitutions is a painfully slow process—Afghanistan's effort, unveiled two months late, is a case in point.
And as the CIA report suggests, time may not be on America's side. According to the New York Times, Mr Bremer is expected to urge Iraqis to hold elections in the first half of next year. However, he must still work out an agreement with the country's Governing Council, a 24-member executive made up of Iraqis but set up by America. The council is expected to seek more immediate power for itself, possibly instead of rushed elections. Any solution will require delicate handling of the country's ethnic divisions, as the Sunni Muslim and Kurdish minorities will be worried about too much power accruing to the Shia Muslim majority.
Officials in Washington clearly have their eyes on the domestic political repercussions of Iraq. Support for the occupation remains strong, but Americans are increasingly worried about the continuing attacks on troops (not to mention America's inability to find any weapons of mass destruction). Speeding up the transfer of sovereignty to Iraqis seems politically expedient, especially with the American presidential elections coming up next year.
Whether this will quieten the insurgents in Iraq is another question altogether. General John Abizaid of US Central Command puts the number of "thugs" at up to 5,000. They have shown themselves keen to attack Iraqi "collaborators" as well as American (and now Italian) occupiers. This suggests that any government condoned by the Americans will be considered a fair target. Moreover, even if Iraqis take power next year, American forces will still be in the country, drawing more attacks. Transferring sovereignty to Iraqis will therefore be only half of the answer; the other half will be rooting out the shadowy figures who are trying to turn the entire country into a zone of terror.
More Information on Iraq
FAIR USE NOTICE: This page contains copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Global Policy Forum distributes this material without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. We believe this constitutes a fair use of any such copyrighted material as provided for in 17 U.S.C § 107. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond fair use, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
