Global Policy Forum

By Peyman Pejman

Mention Iraq these days and the most immediate impression will likely be daily attacks on U.S. soldiers, assassination of Iraqis, explosions, or maybe difficulties in transferring power from the U.S.-led occupation force to Iraqi officials.

But more and more Iraqi -- and international -- leaders are warning that the real threat in Iraq lies somewhere else, and that, if it is not addressed soon enough, it can wreak havoc. ''The need for (improving) social programme is huge and nothing compares to them. They are our highest priority and will remain so,'' Mehdi Hafez, Iraq's planning minister told an Iraq donors' conference in the United Arab Emirates last month.

Hafez and other Iraqi, U.S. and U.N. officials have warned that unless Iraq can quickly rebuild its social infrastructure network, future Iraqi governments might pay a high political price for it. ''The United Nations shares Iraqi officials' very deep concern that to fail (to implement these projects) may result in social unrest and disturbances,'' said Ross Mountain, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator in Iraq.

Iraqi officials argue that they need billions of dollars in the next 12 months to build new schools, make a considerable dent in unemployment, provide adequate electricity to everyone, offer universal health care, and provide safe drinking water to people across the country.

Hafez went to the donors' conference with a wish list to spend four billion U.S. dollars on 700 projects by the end of the year. Of that amount, almost three billion dollars would have been spent on education, health, electricity, and water projects. Hafez did not go home empty-handed, but only received pledges for a quarter of what he wanted.

A donors' meeting in Madrid last year promised to pay 16 billion dollars toward Iraq's reconstruction in the next three to five years, but the overwhelming portion of that money will come once sovereignty is handed over from occupation forces to Iraqi officials.

Washington plans to spend 18 billion dollars of its own money in Iraq this year. Amid all these, Iraqi officials argue that the social needs are manifold. Although official Iraqi figures put the employment and underemployment at about 50 percent, U.N. and U.S. officials believe the real figure is closer to 70 percent.

Iraqi and U.S. officials have repeatedly expressed concern that one immediate reason to resolve the employment problem is that many of the unemployed -- including former members of the armed forces and security apparatus -- would accept money in return for attacks on their forces.

Before the war, Iraq's army and various security organisations employed as many as 500,000 people.

Drinking water is another major concern. Iraq's two rivers, Tigris and Euphrates, supply drinking water to two-thirds of the country's 25 million people, but 60 percent of the supply is lost to leaks or ''illegal connections'', according to U.S. officials in Baghdad. Worse, much of the sewage and solid waste throughout the country -- much more so in rural areas -- is simply dumped into the two rivers while many of the treatment facilities throughout the country are either out of order or functioning well below capacity.

Nationwide, only six percent of waste is treated and only nine percent of the urban areas have their sewage treated.

Health care is a field Iraq once prided itself in, but no longer. ‘'In the 1960s and 1970s, Iraq was a model for health care and medical services, but years of neglect by the former regime substantially decimated the network,'' says Naeema al-Gasseer, Iraq representative of the World Health Organization (WHO).

''The child mortality rate has increased very much in Iraq and many more women lose their lives because of poor health services,'' she adds. Iraqi Health Minister Khudair Abbas said the regime of Saddam Hussein spent a meager 16 million dollars, or about 68 U.S. cents per person on the health care system in 2002.

Some of the damage caused to the medical and health care facilities has little to do with Saddam's regime or the war that toppled him. Looters ransacked most of the major hospitals in Baghdad and other cities soon after their fall and stole anything from medical supplies to oxygen canisters and surgical equipment.

One of the areas that both Iraqi and occupation officials have expressed special concern about is schools. Whether because of damage caused during the war or neglect by the former regime, 80 percent of primary and secondary schools in Iraq need ''significant reconstruction'', says Adm David Nash, director of the office responsible for spending U.S. reconstruction funds in Iraq.

Although the numbers have decreased, Iraqi, U.N. officials say too many students still do not go to school. ''Whether it is because the school is damaged or not suitable, or parents are too afraid schools might be a target of some kind of military action, or whatever, still too many kids don't go to school and that poses two types of concerns,'' says a U.S. official in Baghdad who spoke on condition of anonymity.

''First is that these are the future of Iraq. If we want a prosperous and successful Iraq, we'd better find a way of sending them back to school. Second, there is always the possibility that an idol kid can be used by militant groups,'' he added.

Finally, one reason why Iraqi officials say they need immediate cash infusion to quell the possibility of social and political unrest is the need to ensure a reliable supply of electricity. Even in Saddam's time, Iraq only produced about 80 percent of the electricity it needed. Baghdad received a supply of about 22 hours a day, but only at the expense of many hours of darkness in rural areas and smaller cities.

After the war, many Iraqis blamed the occupying forces for not fixing the damaged electricity lines fast enough -- and it was months before resident could count on a somewhat reliable supply. Iraqi officials now say the country produces about 4,000 megawatts a month. While U.S. officials say the peak demand is now 6,000 megawatts, Iraqis say it is closer to 10,000 megawatts.