Global Policy Forum

By Thom Shanker and David Johnston

United States intelligence officials have specifically identified more than 2,000 members of the Iraqi elite, including some to be captured as possible war criminals and many more the American military will try to turn against Saddam Hussein during any invasion, senior government officials said today.

The officials said the computer database, whose existence was previously undisclosed, divided the Iraqi leadership into three categories: hard-core allies of Mr. Hussein; senior Iraqis whose allegiances are uncertain but who may be willing to cooperate with United States forces; and another group of people who are believed either to secretly oppose the government or whose technical expertise is deemed crucial to running a post-Hussein government.

President Bush seemed to have some of these officials in mind when when he told reporters that Iraq's generals should "clearly understand that if they take innocent life, if they destroy infrastructure, they will be held to account as war criminals."

But not all of Mr. Hussein's commanders face the possibility of harsh treatment. "If they prevent use of weapons of mass destruction or if they surrender their troops without fighting, that would mitigate whatever punishment is coming to them," a senior Bush administration official said today.

The list was assembled by a number of government agencies and departments, including the Central Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon and the Justice Department. Senior officials acknowledged that the idea of identifying the leadership of a potentially hostile country was not a new one. But they described it as the largest effort of its kind, one that dwarfs work by American intelligence to identify Taliban leaders during the war in Afghanistan or to analyze the military and political leadership in Belgrade during the war in Kosovo.

Mr. Bush's warning, along with the comments of senior officials throughout the government, is part of a coordinated American effort to encourage acts that undermine Mr. Hussein's authority, unsettle his leadership circle and perhaps persuade him to leave the country, the officials said. Exile for the Iraqi leader is an option that Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld raised anew today in a speech in Washington and that Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, spoke of on Monday at the White House.

To that end, public discussion of the new intelligence database could prompt those members of the Iraqi leadership who are not in Mr. Hussein's immediate inner circle to contemplate cooperation with the American military. "Clearly, our desire is to have as small a number as possible with any stake in the survival of the regime," said one senior administration official.

After initially refusing to discuss the database, a number of senior administration officials confirmed its existence after reports began circulating within intelligence agencies that Mr. Hussein is himself aware of the list, or at least has guessed at its existence. Mr. Hussein is said to have told large numbers of subordinates that they are viewed as war criminals by the United States, and therefore could survive only by continued loyalty to him. But one senior administration official said today that the first category was "a relatively small number."

As administration officials confirmed both the listing of Iraqi officials and their division into three categories, the White House appeared to place Mr. Hussein in a category all his own.

Senator Peter G. Fitzgerald, Republican of Illinois, was quoted by The Daily Herald of suburban Chicago as saying that Mr. Bush told him he would revoke the executive order banning the assassination of foreign leaders if the United States had a clear shot at Mr. Hussein.

Ari Fleischer, the White House spokesman, said today that Mr. Bush had "no memory" of the conversation, but he stopped short of denying it. Mr. Fleischer made clear today that he knew of no plans to lift the ban on assassinations, but that the prohibition would not apply if military action began in Iraq.

"If we go to war in Iraq and hostilities result, command and control and top generals, people who are in charge of fighting the war to kill the United States' troops, cannot assume that they will be safe," he said. "If you go to war, command and control are legitimate targets under international law."

Iraqi leaders in the first category include top military, security, intelligence and political leaders, as well as members of Mr. Hussein's family or others "inextricably linked to Saddam, particularly those who ordered and/or implemented the regime's brutal policies," officials said.

"Many of these individuals would be considered indictable for possible war crimes or crimes against humanity," one official said, and they may "have links to terrorist acts or groups, as well as those positioned to operationally obstruct a U.S. military campaign."

Officials refused to say precisely how many people they had put in each category. According to one senior administration official, those placed in the first category are relatively few, and "have already lost their last chance to get any credit for surrendering. There will be no last-minute reprieve."

The second category, of Iraqi military, security, intelligence and government officials who have ties to Mr. Hussein's sensitive programs but whose attitudes about a postwar government are unknown, will be judged by their actions during any war that may be ordered by Mr. Bush, officials said.

The judgments of this larger group will be based on "how they conduct themselves if war becomes necessary," a senior official said."

The third category of the roster is also large, and includes those who secretly oppose the government or those economic and financial officers needed to run a postwar government.

Bush administration officials have long said that Mr. Hussein and his ruling circle would be held accountable for crimes against the Iraqi people, from killings by security forces to attacks with weapons of mass destruction. But the compilation of a list of people potentially eligible to be charged with war crimes suggests that the planning for such tribunals — which could be conducted by the United States, turned over to an international court or carried out by a new Iraqi legal system after the conflict — is far more advanced than has been known.

A senior Bush administration official said it was unlikely that the government, either on its own or with allies, would engage in extensive war crimes prosecutions. "Don't think Nuremburg," one senior official said. "Think about the Tokyo war crimes trials," in which Gen. Hideki Tojo and a few dozen of his lieutenants were tried after Japan's surrender. The Iraqi people may also be encouraged to develop so-called truth commissions similar to those in postapartheid South Africa or post-Communist Eastern Europe.

A senior Defense Department official said today that the list was available only to the most senior people in the administration — as well as C.I.A. officers and Special Operations forces who already had been working inside Iraq and were expected to spearhead the hunt for Mr. Hussein and his inner circle.

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