Global Policy Forum

By Alistair Lyon

Saddam Hussein's capture will delight most Iraqis and devastate the deposed dictator's loyalists, but even this stunning victory for U.S. forces may not quell the violence they face in Iraq. Even as Iraqis took to the streets to rejoice at the seizure of the once feared ruler, analysts said it was premature to assume that resistance to the U.S.- led occupation would crumble.

"There will be a reduction in operations sponsored by former regime loyalists, but this is not the full story because they are not the only group involved," said Mustafa Alani, an Iraq analyst at London's Royal United Services Institute. "It won't affect those by Iraqi or Arab mujahideen and might increase them because those who did not want to be branded as supporters of Saddam might now join a resistance with a more nationalist dimension," he said.

U.S. officials have blamed Saddam loyalists and foreign Muslim militants for unremitting attacks that have killed nearly 200 U.S. soldiers since U.S. President George W. Bush declared major combat in Iraq over on May 1. Saddam had eluded capture for eight months after Baghdad fell on April 9 to U.S. forces, who also failed to find any of the weapons of mass destruction cited by the United States and Britain as the main reason for the war they launched in March.

Insurgency Independent of Saddam

"It's a huge coup and most Iraqis will be celebrating the capture of this tyrant," said Toby Dodge of Warwick University and the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "But it's not as clear-cut as that. The insurgency has grown well beyond Saddam's control or even influence. There are 15 to 30 groups that have no direct contact, financially or strategically, with Saddam Hussein," he said.

Even the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq conceded that Saddam's capture did not necessarily mean resistance would end. "We do not expect at this point in time that we will have a complete elimination of those attacks," Lieutenant-General Ricardo Sanchez told reporters in Baghdad.

But Iraqi Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani, a member of the Iraqi Governing Council, took a more optimistic view. "With the arrest of Saddam, the financial resources feeding terrorists have been destroyed and his arrest will put an end to terrorist acts in Iraq," he told the Iranian news agency IRNA.

Sir Timothy Garden, of Kings College London and the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said Saddam's capture would boost the morale of U.S.-led forces and of the U.S.-appointed Governing Council, but might not stem the bloodshed. "It seems most unlikely that Saddam was micro-managing the violence because that would have made him very vulnerable to capture," Garden said.

Several analysts said it was a vital psychological blow that buried lingering Iraqi fears of a comeback by Saddam and opened the way for a trial that could help Iraq deal with its past. "It really destroys forever the idea of a return to Saddam for many who thought he was a kind of legend capable of resistance and carrying the Iraqi flag again," said Abdel-Monem Said, director of Egypt's Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.

"Most important it will be an opportunity politically as he was caught alive to put him on trial and all the atrocities of this regime will be in the open," he said. U.S. forces have previously detained or killed 40 of a list of 55 most wanted Iraqis, topped by Saddam. Among them were Saddam's two sons Uday and Qusay, killed in a blaze of firepower in July.

Captured Alive

Alani said it was a propaganda coup for the Americans to have captured Saddam alive, especially after their galling failure to seize al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan. "It's an intelligence prize because they can get information from him about cells working now. And it's a huge victory because he was the head of the regime and not like anyone else on the list of 55 most wanted."

Tracking down Saddam in his hometown of Tikrit could give renewed hope for U.S. efforts to stabilise and rebuild Iraq. "His capture gives the U.S. a window of opportunity," said Dodge. "If they redouble their efforts and increase their troop commitment, they could contain or even roll back the insurgency.

"But the temptation of Bush, facing a re-election campaign, will be to call this victory and cut and run. That would be a disaster for Iraq, for the Middle East and for the strategic interests of the United States in the region and beyond."

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