July/August 2000
For decades, Saddam Hussein's fall has been called imminent. But he has managed to hold on to power longer than any other modern Iraqi ruler. According to Ofra Bengio, Middle East expert at Tel Aviv University and author of Saddam's Word, Saddam's seeming invincibility is owed to his ruthless personality, clumsy foes, and mastery of virtually all Iraqi institutions, including the military. His most likely successors are his sons, both apt to be as thuggish as their father. The West's only viable strategy is to wait Saddam out while nudging Iraq's battered elites to replace him with a more responsible, less brutal autocrat. But it should not hold its breath.
By essentially conditioning the end of the embargo on Saddam's ouster, [President Bush and President Clinton] once again played into his hands. Saddam has used this demand to divert responsibility for the misery of sanctions away from himself and onto the United States, which he blames for all of Iraq's mishaps. The prolongation of the embargo has thus strengthened Saddam rather than weakening him, not least because it has made Iraqis depend on him more than ever for their livelihood.
