Global Policy Forum

By Michel Sailhan

The rush of US diplomatic activity in the Middle East this week has sparked Arab concern that Washington, to avoid the risks of two wars raging at the same time, is trying to quieten the Palestinian front before it launches operations against Iraq.

Newspapers and analysts in Cairo have based their fears on the regional tours of US Vice President Dick Cheney and President George W. Bush's special envoy General Anthony Zinni.

"Does Dick Cheney's visit in the region really aim to end the violence between Israelis and Palestinians, or to prepare the Arabs and international scene for strikes on Iraq, as part of the US 'war on terror?'" asked an editorialist of Egyptian state-owned newspaper Al-Ahram. Abdel Alim Mohammed, assistant director of Al-Ahram's Center for Political and Strategic Studies, referred to a division of tasks between the two US officials.

Zinni, who is expected to arrive later this week, "wants to calm the situation" between Israelis and Palestinians, while Cheney, starting an Arab tour in Jordan on Tuesday, "wants to prepare opinion for an attack on Iraq", which faces US charges of developing weapons of mass destruction, he told AFP.

"The two missions go together in the same new direction of American policy," he said. Antoine Basbous, director of the France-based Arab Countries Observatory, shares Mohammed's view.

"Cheney will prepare the ground for the attack against Iraq, while Zinni wants to defuse the crisis in the Middle East," he said.

"They can't have two theaters. Not a single Arab regime friendly to the United States could stand up to two wars in the region," he said. "And so it needs to calm things down in Palestine, to attack (Iraqi President) Saddam Hussein."

For Basbous, two simultaneous wars would have a disastrous effect on countries such as Jordan, which lies next door to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and has close economic ties with Iraq. "Baghdad has the capacity to destabilize Jordan," he added.

The official press in Baghdad warned that US strikes on Iraq could set the whole region ablaze. "If fire breaks out, no one will be able to stop it spreading or put it out," wrote the newspaper Al-Iraq.

Noting that Cheney's trip to the region will coincide with that of Zinni, it slammed Washington's "transparent maneuver" of trying to "restore calm in Palestine" while discussing its "aggressive plans" against Iraq in Arab capitals.

King Abdullah of Jordan on Sunday reiterated his opposition to the use of force against Iraq and warned anew that a strike would be "catastrophic" for regional stability.

Egypt, another close ally of the United States, has tried for several months to prevent Washington from following through on implicit threats to attack Iraq, also citing the danger of regional instability.

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