Global Policy Forum

The government of Cote d'Ivoire appealed for calm as the much-hyped deadline for disarmament to begin passed by on Friday with rebel forces refusing to hand in a single weapon. Defence Minister Rene Amani said a television broadcast on Thursday night that people should not pay attention to "a certain number of rumours" that have been flying round the economic capital Abidjan.

He was apparently referring to widespread fears that youth militia groups which support President Laurent Gbagbo would once more go on the rampage, staging rowdy protest demonstrations and attacking immigrants and people from the north of Cote d'Ivoire suspected of being rebel sympathisers. Other factors have also contributed to growing tension in the country.

In recent days, Abidjan newspapers have reported possible moves by Gbagbo to sack the the military high command. And the rebel movement which occupies the northern half of Cote d'Ivoire has repeated allegations that government forces are preparing to launch an attack on rebel territory from neighbouring Guinea.

Amani said the process of disarmament, which was due to have begun on Friday, was still on course and "negotiations are progressing." "There is nothing to be afraid of," Amani continued. "I would like to reassure each and every one of you that everything will be normal .that everybody should go about their business calmly, that schools should open, that markets should open and that everybody should go about their ordinary business." The United Nations, which has a 6,000-strong peacekeeping force in Cote d'Ivoire, took the precaution of suspending all travel into the country by visiting UN personnel until 20 October.

With Cote d'Ivoire's fragile peace process once more in deadlock, the prospects for the country's future looks as dark and ominous as the heavy rainclouds which gather over Abidjan every afternoon to drench the city in torrential rain. Civil war broke out in Cote d'Ivoire in September 2002, but a French-brokered peace agreement signed in January 2003 has yet to be implemented in full. The fighting eventually stopped in May 2003, leaving rebel forces in control of the northern half of the country. And a broad-based government of national reconciliation was formed to guide the country to presidential elections in October 2005.

But Gbagbo has yet to implement in full a series of political reforms demanded by the Linas-Marcoussis peace agreement and until he does so the rebels are refusing to lay down their weapons. The latest target date for the start of disarmament - 15 October - was set at a summit meeting of the Ivorian factions in the Ghanaian capital Accra at the end of July. But Gbagbo failed deliver his side of the bargain by putting promised political reforms on the statute book by the end of September, so now the rebels are refusing to disarm.

The government and rebel armies have agreed technical arrangements for the disarmament process to begin with the French and UN peacekeeping forces in Cote d'Ivoire. But Colonel Soumaila Bakayako, the military commander of the New Forces rebel movement, stressed earlier this week that the order for his men to lay down their weapons would be a political decision. And Guillaume Soro, the rebel leader, made clear that not a single gun would be handed over until the delayed reforms were enacted. Most of the planned measures are aimed at giving the four million West African immigrants to Cote d'Ivoire and their descendents greater political and economic rights.

"Nothing is going to happen on 15 October. We are still armed, the country is divided and parliament hasn't voted through the reforms," Soro told IRIN in an interview earlier this week. "So long as there is not a minimum level of confidence, which must exist as a contract between the political actors, we are not going to talk about DDR (disarmament, demobilization and rehabilitation)."

The "Accra Three" summit at the end of July, was billed at the time as a last chance to get the Ivorian peace process back on track. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and a dozen African heads of state turned up to force the rival factions into a compromise. Now diplomats in Abidjan find it difficult to see a way out of the crisis that does not involve the men with guns stepping forward to take control of the situation. "Where are we going? For over a year and a half we have been at a stand-still," one exasperated African diplomat told IRIN. "No blockage is perpetual. An answer will come and it will come from the military," he predicted. "The politicians should not under-estimate that ties between the government and rebel soldiers," he warned, hinting that the military commanders of both sides could strike an agreement between themselves and seize the initiative from their political masters.

One senior UN official in Abidjan told IRIN: "The only solution is a robust action." That, he said, could either come from "outside or inside." But no-one has so far talked seriously about applying international sanctions against Cote d'Ivoire, a country which has been starved of development aid by the international community since the conflict began. And with 10,000 foreign peacekeepers already stationed in the country to keep the government and rebel armies apart, it is difficult to see what more foreign governments can do.

But as time ticks by with no solution in sight, diplomats warn it will become harder and harder to hold free and fair presidential elections next year as planned. Amoikon Tiemele, a senior figure in the Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire (PDCI), the largest opposition party in parliament, expressed concern at the latest turn of events. "I am very worried. You can easily predict a deterioration of the situation," he told IRIN.

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