Global Policy Forum

By Jonathan Steele

Strong warnings to the international community not to drop the option of eventual independence for Kosovo because Slobodan Milosevic has been replaced by a democratic government in Serbia are contained in two new reports by international experts.

The world should consider moving the largely Albanian-populated former province of Serbia to "conditional independence", according to a report from a commission set up by the Swedish prime minister, Goran Persson, which will be handed to the UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, today. The world would have to guarantee the security of the new state, oversee the protection of human rights for Serbs and other minorities, and integrate Kosovo into the Balkan stability pact, the report says. But world powers must also recognise that although UN resolution 1244, which ended the war in Kosovo, kept the territory within the framework of Yugoslavia, that is not tenable in the long term.

In a separate report a respected think tank, the International Crisis Group, says Mr Milosevic's departure makes it imperative to accelerate a decision on Kosovo. It warns that support for hardliners within the Kosovo Albanian community would rise "if the international community's new-found love affair with Belgrade is seen as compromising Kosovo's desire for independence". It also says that the west must be careful not to make the wrong gestures to the new Yugoslav president, Vojislav Kostunica. In a speech given when he was sworn in, Mr Kostunica called for a strengthening of ties between Serbia and Kosovo.

Under UN resolution 1244 Yugoslavia is entitled eventually to send up to 1,000 troops back to Kosovo for work at border crossings and to guard historical sites. For the UN to grant that right would be "catastrophic", the ICG warns, and would alienate Kosovo Albanians overnight. It would be equally disastrous if the Kosovans became convinced that the arrival of a new government had led the international community to rule out independence. To show that the Kosovans' right to self-determination is accepted, the ICG has urged the European Union, which holds a Balkans summit in Zagreb next month, to invite not only Mr Kostunica but also Kosovo Albanian representatives.

The Kosovo commission offers five options for Kosovo's future status. Renewing the current United Nations protectorate for an indefinite number of years may seem attractive but Kosovan Albanian impatience might lead to parallel underground institutions or outright rebellion. Partition might satisfy Serbs in Mitrovice but would lead to the forced relocation of most other Serbs as well as the end of the international community's commitment to maintain the multi-ethnic character of all Balkan states. Full independence for Kosovo and the end of the UN mandate would be opposed by Russia and China, create anxieties in neighbouring states, and be resisted by Kosovo's Serb and Roma communities. Autonomy within Yugoslavia is impractical, the commission argues: "The simple truth is that no Kosovar will accept to live under Serb rule, however notional, ever again." The only viable solution, it concludes, is "conditional independence".

The commission finds that Nato's intervention against Yugoslavia was "illegal but legitimate" and criticises Nato for "major mistakes" in thinking that the bombing campaign would be short and in not anticipating the Serbian revenge attacks on Kosovan Albanians.

It urges the United Nations to "close the gap between legality and legitimacy" by preparing a new framework for intervention. It also suggests that the general assembly produce a declaration which would sanctify three principles that would have to be met before any humanitarian intervention could be accepted: massive civilian suffering, the overriding commitment to the direct protection of civilians, and the calculation that the intervention has a reasonable chance of ending the catastrophe.

For the report by the Independent International Commission on Kosovo, see www.kosovocommission.org.

For the International Crisis Group's report, see www.intl-crisis-group.org.