October 3, 2001
The election campaign of Kosovo Albanian political parties officially started in Pristina on October 3 with rallies of the two leading parties -- the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo and the Democratic Party of Kosovo. Although there is just over a month left until the elections -- the first in which the Kosovo Albanians will choose their future representatives -- it seems that everyone already knows the winner. According to all recent public opinion polls, the favorite is Ibrahim Rugova's party, the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo, which will probably win more than 45 percent of votes. Behind Rugova are former commanders of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) [UCK in Albanian], current presidents of the Democratic Party of Kosovo and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, Hashim Thaci and Ramush Haradinaj, respectively.
Both public opinion polls and analysts' estimates lead to the conclusion that far less people will vote in the November elections than in October 2000, when the number was very close to the one in a referendum -- 80 percent. This phenomenon is explained as due to the fact that the majority of voters are quite disappointed with the post-election events in Kosovo, but also because the winner, the Democratic Alliance of Kosovo, is practically unable to take over, from the KLA leaders who practically have been in power since 1999.
Basically, the Kosovo elections will be a struggle between former KLA commanders over who is going to come the second. According to forecasts, Thaci and Haradinaj will achieve an almost identical result as they did in October 2000, when they won 25, and a little over 7 percent of votes, respectively. Observers in Pristina say that it is possible that Ramush Haradinaj's party will fare slightly better, especially thanks to a more active role of its political advisor, former communist official and "puppet master" of Kosovo politics in the last decade, Mahmut Bakalli.
At the same time, it is almost certain that Bujar Bukoshi, former Kosovo prime minister in exile, will become the first Kosovo premier. Rugova will appoint Bukoshi primarily because of at least 850 million German marks that Bukoshi had collected from Albanian emigres in the West for the struggle for Kosovo's independence in the past 10 years. At this point, Bukoshi is the only serious candidate, although he has not taken an active part in the public and political life since his return to Kosovo, in the autumn of 1999.
His sole serious attempt to become involved in Kosovo's public life, according to well-informed sources, was an offer to former UNMIK [UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo] chief, Bernard Kouchner, to include around 3,000 members of the FARK [Republic of Kosovo Armed Forces], a military formation financed from the funds controlled by Bukoshi, in the Kosovo police. Thaci insisted that Kouchner turn this offer down and he did, which put an end to Bukoshi's attempts to become politically active. However, both UNMIK and Thaci kept trying to get their hands on the funds collected by Bukoshi, but neither succeeded.
Serbs
According to UNMIK's estimates, the Kosovo Serbs could win around 28 of the total 120 seats in the future assembly, which would turn them into the second strongest political force in Kosovo. But the Serb side is closer to boycotting the elections than participating in them. Serbs in Kosovo practically live in ghettos and they have total freedom only in the large northern enclave, around the divided town of Kosovska Mitrovica, given that this part is next to the border with Serbia proper and there are no Albanians in it.
Under the pressure by UNMIK and the international community, the Belgrade authorities first organized a strong campaign to attract as many Serbs as possible to register for the elections. Around 180,000 Serb voters registered and the Serb side officially registered its Coalition for Return. More radical Kosovo Serb officials fiercely oppose participation in the vote and the Belgrade authorities do not dare call on the Kosovo Serbs to vote, because of the poor conditions they live in.
Around 1,200 activists of the Belgrade-based Center for Free Elections and Democracy -- CeSID will monitor the elections in Serb-populated areas, while the Albanian part of independent monitoring will be carried out by the Pristina-based KACI and the Council for Human Rights and Freedoms, led by former KLA representative and long-time political prisoner, Adem Demaci.
Covic
Serbian Deputy Premier Nebojsa Covic, Belgrade's key figure in resolving the Kosovo crisis, is dissatisfied with UNMIK's work so far and demands that the international community do more to protect the Serbs. Well-informed sources in Pristina say that the UN Security Council backed the Kosovo Serbs' main demands -- which regard the freedom of movement in Serb enclaves -- during Covic's recent visit to New York. Additional KFOR forces have been prepared and a Serb unit will be formed in the Kosovo Protection Corps for this purpose.
Covic basically wants to arrange an agreement with the international community that would pertain to the territories in which the Serbs are a majority population, before the November elections. Belgrade is aiming to strengthen its presence in these territories. Essentially, Covic wishes, through organizations acceptable to UNMIK and the international community, to create a form of Serb security forces and increase the Serbian government's influence. However, it is highly unlikely that the Serbs will under any circumstances agree to wear the same uniform as the officially demobilized KLA fighters, who make up the Kosovo Protection Corps.
Head of the OSCE mission in Kosovo, Norwegian diplomat Daan Everts, announced the beginning of the Kosovo pre-election campaign by saying that the international community's tolerance level in the province is "extremely low." This message to Kosovo residents at the beginning of the campaign was echoed by the American Embassy's representative in Pristina John Menzis, who warned that the recent attacks on New York and Washington demonstrate the view the international community will take in the future towards all extremists.
The Coalition for Return, the only Serb political party which registered for the elections, appears to be a tactical move on behalf of the government in Belgrade, which using largely unknown political factors, leaves the door open for Serb participation in the elections. The coalition's registration is not without controversy, having resulted in bitter clashes between the two Yugoslav government Kosovo chiefs, Nebojsa Covic and Momcilo Trajkovic. Although Covic's influence casts a large shadow, the dispute will be no doubt cooled by the attempts of political parties in Belgrade to define a clear strategy towards Kosovo.
Covic and Trajkovic shook hands in Belgrade for the cameras on October 3, announcing that although they held different opinions on the Kosovo question, they would do their utmost to alleviate the plight of the remaining Serbs in the province.
The demand of the Kosovo branch of the Democratic Party that general elections be delayed for a year is unlikely to be met, with clear warnings being given by members of international organizations in Kosovo that November 17 general elections will take place, as did last year's local elections, with or without the participation of Serbs.
Macedonia
The completion of the month-long Operation Essential Harvest, during which approximately 5,000 NATO troops collected a slightly more than planned 3,300 weapons from the Albanian rebel National Liberation Army (NLA) [UCK in Albanian] has brought relative calm to Macedonia, but the possibility for new tension remains high as the Macedonian parliament experiences serious difficulties in passing the necessary constitutional changes laid down by the Ohrid peace agreement.
Confirmation that passing the necessary constitutional changes will not be as smooth as desired by international representatives was given by Macedonian parliament speaker Stojan Andov, who announced that the parliament would recess until the fates of 14 Macedonians who disappeared during clashes between Macedonian security forces and the NLA are clarified. At the same time, the situation remains unclear as calls to put the proposed constitutional changes to a referendum by four MPs from the New Democracy party, allegedly close to the ruling VMRO-DPMNE [Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity] party of Macedonian prime minister Ljubco Georgijevski, show no sign of abating. The next session of the Macedonian parliament is scheduled for October 5.
The EU's High Representative for security and foreign policy, Javier Solana expressed the view in Skopje that representatives of the international community are less than impressed with the stalling of constitutional changes, as have the creators of the peace deal signed on August 13, special EU and US envoys, Francois Leotard and James Pardew.
The three senior officials of the international community have arrived in Skopje in a bid to warn authorities that although holding a referendum on the constitutional changes is Macedonia's unquestionable right, it is not the best idea at a time when Macedonia has narrowly escaped the atrocities of civil war. At the same time, Solana, Leotard and Pardew will hold talks on the honoring of the peace deal pledge of amnesty for former members of the NLA. As far as it is known, the amnesty will take the same shape and form as the amnesty given to former Albanian rebels of the National Liberation Army of Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedja in southern Serbia by the Belgrade authorities.
Things, however took a turn for the worst on October 3 as, according to BETA's sources, Macedonian prime minister Ljubco Georgijevski threw Pardew and Leotard out of his office, reacting to Pardew's demands that Macedonian security forces delay their return to the crisis zones and his claims that Macedonians were harassing Albanians undergoing police training. BETA also learned that an attempt, that ultimately failed, was also made at a subsequent meeting of the Macedonian security council to declare Pardew "persona non-grata." Pardew and Leotard were reportedly appalled at their treatment at Georgijevski's hands, describing his behavior as "insolent."
As in southern Serbia, it has been announced that certain local commanders will be excluded from the amnesty. The granting of amnesty will signal at the same time, the start of the democratic political engagement of former NLA members, mainly through the National Democratic Party of Kastriota Haxhirexha, who is expected to be joined by a large number of former Albanian rebels. Haxhirexha is a former member of the Democratic Party of Albanians led by Arben Xhaferi, who joined the NLA after the outbreak of fighting near Tetovo and formed his own political party. The National Democratic Party has set as its main aim the struggle for the federalization of Macedonia, as "the only fair and permanent solution to the crisis."
Using the positive experience from southern Serbia, the international community and Macedonian authorities have announced the return of Macedonian security forces to zones controlled by the NLA over the last few months. As in southern Serbia, the return of Macedonian security forces monitored by international observers, is a prelude to the creation of a multi-ethnic police force, which will in the future take responsibility for maintaining law and order in majority Albanian areas.
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