Global Policy Forum

By Tim Judah *

With NATO now pouring reinforcements into Kosovo and taking back control, the immediate crisis may be ending. Taken off guard, the troops and the UN - which has the final say in the administration of the province - have had their credibility damaged by the violence in recent days that has left 31 dead.

Immediately after the Kosovo war in June 1999, large numbers of Serbs fled or were expelled by ethnic Albanians in revenge for their treatment by the Serbian regime. But at least 100,000 Serbs remained, among a population of perhaps 1.8 million hostile Albanians. About half of the Serbs lived in enclaves dotted across the province, the rest in the northern part of the divided city of Mitrovica and the almost solidly Serb area, which runs from the town to the north.

Since 1999, ethnically motivated killings have become rare. So the question now is why the wounding of a Serb followed by the drowning of three Albanian children - chased to the water by Serbs, say Albanians - has prompted this new round of violence.

The last year had seen a real improvement in inter-ethnic relations, with Serbs and Albanians losing their fear of being seen talking to one another. A plan to solve the question of how Mitrovica should be run had been endorsed by Kosovo's top Serb and Albanian politicians. Likewise talks on issues such as energy between Kosovo's Albanian-dominated devolved government and the Serbian government in Belgrade were said to be going well. Indeed, last year US Under Secretary of State Marc Grossman said it could soon be time to discuss the province's final status.

UN officials say violence against Serbs was well planned. And while Albanian politicians condemn it, they say that it would never have happened if Kosovo had been independent. The province remains part of Serbia and Montenegro although under temporary UN jurisdiction. The UN had just announced elections in Kosovo. It and NATO-led forces had clearly no inkling of what was to happen.

Several small enclaves of Serbs have been 'ethnically cleansed'. The distinguished Kosovo Albanian publisher, Veton Surroi, said: 'The aim is to expel [Serbs] from central Kosovo by destroying their homes and churches.' More Serbs will now leave and refugees in Serbia will not return.

Vojislav Kostunica, the incoming Serbian Prime Minister, had just said Serb areas in Kosovo should be given legal autonomy. Now there are fewer of them. Albanians believe that when Serbs talk of autonomy this could well be a prelude to the physical partitioning of the province. In any partition the north would stay with Serbia. The status of the enclaves would be uncertain. It looks as though Albanian extremists have tried to snuff them out.

This may prove again the old Balkan belief that violence is the only way to get things done. Denisa Kostovicova, a specialist at the London School of Economics, believes a solution to the Kosovo issue may now be 'easier than before'. By clearing the map, as was done by the Srebrenica massacre in Bosnia, and leaving the only major concentration of Serbs in the north, a compromise may be possible - independence, with autonomy for the north, which would remain physically part of Kosovo but de facto part of Serbia.

About the author: Tim Judah is the author of Kosovo: War and Revenge, published by Yale University Press