Global Policy Forum

By Bukurie Bajraliu*

There is growing recognition that Serbs may have succeeded in forcing a postponement to 2007.

Kosovars are bracing themselves for an expected delay to the announcement of Kosovo's final status, with some predicting that frustration may spill over into violence. On October 9, Martti Ahtisaari, the UN special envoy for Kosovo, admitted no agreed solution was in sight in ongoing talks on final status. "A solution must be found, but that then means that the [UN] Security Council must take a stand in the issue," Ahtisaari told a seminar organised by a Finnish security policy institute in Helsinki.

The envoy's downbeat assessment comes after Serb and Albanian negotiators failed to close the yawning gap between their conflicting platforms on the future of the disputed territory. In fact, the gap is widening, as the Albanian majority clamours for independence as soon as possible, while Serbs up the stakes, using their constitution as a diplomatic weapon.

On September 30, Serbia's parliament narrowed the chances of future compromise by adopting a draft constitution that describes Kosovo as an indivisible part of the republic's territory. At the same time, Serb officials have put pressure on the international community not to make any pronouncement on Kosovo's final status before Serbia's next parliamentary elections, expected in December. Belgrade's steps have apparently borne fruit, with growing indications that an announcement of final status will be postponed until next year.

Though politicians in Kosovo continue to insist final status question will be resolved this year, many political analysts admit this looks unlikely. They also warn of the potential of a delay to create a groundswell of discontent among Kosovo's 2 million Albanians.

Negotiations on final status opened in Vienna in February under Ahtisaari's auspices, six years after the international community took over administration of the territory from Serbia. Mediators have tried to breathe life into the talks by getting the sides to focus less on the final outcome than on "technical" issues, such as cultural heritage, the decentralisation of power to municipalities and the formation of new municipalities for the Serbian minority. But the talks have foundered even on these issues as the parties failed to agree on any substantial points.

The so-called Contact Group of big powers on Kosovo has authorised Ahtisaari to prepare a document on final status, in the meantime urging him to continue negotiations on the "technical" issues. In the absence of wider agreement, this document is to contain Ahtisaari's personal opinion on the status question, after which a solution may be imposed on both sides.

Ahtisaari's UN office, UNOSEC, recently declined to confirm whether the process would be wrapped up in 2006 - fuelling concern that it won't. "This doesn't depend on us," Hua Jiang, UNOSEC's spokesperson, told Balkan Insight. "If the Contact Group wants to close the process by the end of the year, we will do so."

In the meantime, observers say endless delays may lead to an unpredictable situation. Ibrahim Berisha, a political analyst, said he feared postponement of the status issue might trigger a bout of riots. "Postponement will push the Albanian community in Kosovo to take unilateral political steps," said Berisha. "The sooner that status is determined the better it is for all of us." Ismajl Hasani, another analyst, said a delay would make riots almost unavoidable, as "Kosovars were promised a sovereign and independent state by their leaders." The Kosovo negotiating team did not succeed in explaining the negotiations to the people, to equip them to face any decision made by international community." Not everyone says violence is on the cards, however. Milazim Krasniqi, another Kosovar analyst, said there might be great dissatisfaction, but "there will be no violent acts in Kosovo".

Kosovo's political parties remain outwardly optimistic that final status may still be resolved on time. Eqrem Kryeziu, deputy chair of Kosovo's biggest party, the Democratic League of Kosovo, LDK, said he did not believe final status would be postponed beyond 2006. Vlora Citaku, of the Democratic Party of Kosovo, PDK, also is convinced the Contact Group will announce an end to the process by the close of the year. "Any delay will create a dilemma for Kosovars who have waited seven years for their political status," she said. Ylli Hoxha, of the liberal opposition party, ORA, criticised the way it appeared Kosovo was being held hostage to Serbia's internal politics. "Political developments in Serbia should not be a reason to delay the status solution [for Kosovo]," said Hoxha. "Kosovo postponed its local elections for the sake of [completing final] status [talks] and Serbia should do the same."

While most Kosovars look on the prospect of delay with deep gloom, hard-line opponents of the whole negotiating process expect to reap political benefits.

Glauk Konjufca, of Levizja Vetevendosje (Movement for Self-Determination), a more radical group that opposes talks in principle, said delays would open people's eyes to the problems in the negotiating process itself. "More rounds of talks will bring the Kosovo and Serbia teams closer but the Serbian one will not back down from its primary goals," Konjufca told Balkan Insight, voicing a concern that the talks will only end in Albanians making more concessions than Serbs. "If the status resolution is postponed for next year," he went on, "the people of Kosovo will become aware that the negotiations with Serbia are [being made] against the people's will."

About the Author: Bukurie Bajraliu is a journalist for Koha Ditore and a contributor to Balkan Insight.

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