Global Policy Forum

Arms ban

The experts' review - written after extensive travel in west Africa - says the arms embargo should be maintained. The panel says what anyone in Monrovia can observe - the embargo is clearly being violated by government soldiers who can be seen on the streets with brand new weapons.

However, the recommendation to continue the weapons ban may not worry the government of Charles Taylor too much - since it is obvious he is able to get round it anyway. Mr Taylor may on the other hand be pleased to see a further recommendation in the report that an immediate arms embargo also be imposed on the rebel group which has been operating in northern Liberia for the past year or so - the so-called "Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy" or Lurd.

Again, this may in practice be impossible to implement - but Mr Taylor is likely to see it as politically useful to have the Lurd stigmatized in this way. The expert cites the example of a plane which crash-landed at Monrovia airport on 15 February as a probable example of arms sanctions busting by the government.

I was at Monrovia airport a few hours after this incident. The crash, of a Russian cargo plane, caused panic because the accident was followed by a series of loud bangs which sounded like gunfire. Local residents thought the airport was under attack; it later transpired that the gunfire sounds may well have been ammunition on the plane exploding. I saw a police helicopter and ambulances ferrying wounded people back and forth - apparently from the crash site not far from the Atlantic ocean end of the runway - and later learnt that several people were treated at a nearby private hospital.

An air industry source with close knowledge of Liberia - who requested anonymity - later told me that he thought the plane was on an arms sanction-busting mission which went tragically wrong. The Liberian government issued a statement saying a plane over-flying Liberia on February 15 had requested emergency landing rights but unfortunately crashed on the way in.

The UN panel of experts says it found many contradictions in the government version of events; that it was blocked in its investigations into the incident; and asks "what are the Liberian authorities hiding?". The panel says there is evidence the plane came originally from the east European state of Moldova and was indeed planning to land at Monrovia all along.

Diamonds

The panel reported that the imposition of a diamond export ban on Liberia had contributed to a sharp reduction in gemstones carrying the "Liberian" label. Many of these diamonds are thought to have been originally mined in RUF areas inside Sierra Leone.

But the panel adds that the military activities of the LURD rebels had also greatly reduced Liberian domestic diamond production. The panel said the diamond ban should remain in place for now - but held out the prospect that it could be lifted if the government, with international help, set up a credible certification scheme showing which diamonds were locally produced.

This compromise suggestion appears to acknowledge that President Taylor has significantly reduced his contacts with the RUF and provides him with a 'carrot' to continue this line.

The panel reports that although a shadowy group known as 'The Independent RUF', or IRUF, is reported to be active inside Liberia, possibly led by former RUF battlefield commander Sam 'Mosquito' Bokarie, the evidence for this is sketchy. Most significantly, the report says that although "the panel found credible evidence of small clusters of ex-RUF combatants fighting in Liberia as guns for hire for both government and rebels there did not seem to be a connection with the RUFP".

This is crucial because the RUFP - or RUF Party - is the newly-formed political party that emerged from the RUF and is now contesting elections to be held in Sierra Leone in a month's time. The panel said it was concerned about "the continued presence in Liberia of hardcore elements of the RUF" but concluded that "the remnants of the RUF resident in Liberia... pose no direct threat to the stability that has returned to Sierra Leone".

This section of the report is also likely to be seized upon by President Taylor as evidence that the continued imposition of any sanctions against Liberia is unfair. The government in Monrovia has consistently said that because the war in Sierra Leone is over, punishing Liberia for its role in it (although the government of course never openly acknowledges that role) is contradictory.

Travel ban

The travel ban on Liberian government officials and their business associates has always infuriated the authorities in Monrovia. However, it is common knowledge in the region that the ban has been openly flouted. The main loophole has always been Abidjan airport, which has regular air links with Monrovia.

People named on the ban have been seen travelling freely though Abidjan; I once personally saw the family of a senior Liberian official arrive at the airport and be escorted through customs by airport staff. The report says "a small number of key individuals continue regularly to violate the ban".

The report acknowledges that the list of people banned from travelling - there are 129 names - is too long and cumbersome. It recommends that the list should be reduced to "cabinet members, key government officials and individuals... that have violated UN sanctions".

This recommendation can also be seen as a compromise between the Liberian governments position that the travel ban is unfair, and the view of countries such as the US, the UK and Sierra Leone which think the travel ban is an effective "stick" to wield against Mr Taylor.

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