December 18, 2001
Sierra Leone's political future has been thrown into doubt because key militia groups have failed to co-operate with the disarmament process. Both the pro-government Kamajor group and, crucially, the opposition Revolutionary United Front (RUF) have apparently baulked at handing over heavy weaponry - such as rocket-propelled grenade launchers and anti-aircraft guns - to the United Nations Mission in Sierra Leone (Unamsil).
Although some 36,000 out of an estimated 45,000 RUF fighters have been disarmed, the fighters have mainly surrendered light weapons such as AK47 assault rifles and locally made petrol bombs. This has fuelled speculation that the former warring factions are holding on to their heavy firepower in order to intimidate voters and retain some military protection should the elections, currently set for May 2002, degenerate into violence. United Nations officials were last week working hard to resolve the difficulties, but with the disarmament process slated to end on 31December, time is fast running out.
It seems that the RUF, which recently transformed itself into the Revolutionary United Front Party (RUFP), does not in any case support the timeframe for elections. Party workers say they need more time to convince voters that the RUFP is a bonafide political entity. By the same token, many citizens are suspicious of the new political party because of the brutal sacking of Freetown by the RUF in 1999.
At the recent National Consultative Conference, the RUF tried, without success, to push for an interim power-sharing government. Observers suggest that RUF leaders were so disconcerted by lack of support at the conference that orders went out to fighters in their eastern strongholds of Kailahun and Kenema not to surrender heavy weapons. The long-standing condition for co-operation in the peace process - that the government release RUF leader Corporal Foday Sankoh - was again brought into play.
But Sankoh is in prison, awaiting the inaugural session of the UN special court in Sierra Leone, which is expected to try him for alleged war crimes. President Ahmed Tejan Kabbah, acutely aware of the need to retain his support overseas for national economic reconstruction, said that Sankoh's fate was in the hands of the international community.
This is being seen as a skilful political move because the RUF is hampered by a lack of international credibility. The US government recently added the RUF to its new 'terror exclusion' list. The rebel organisation has been accused of selling diamonds in contravention of UN security council resolutions.
With the RUF painted into a corner, there are worries about election violence. It may be significant, for instance, that some Sierra Leoneans are contemplating a temporary stay in neighbouring Guinea or Liberia over the election period. Few people here trust Unamsil to protect them, not least because the peacekeeping force has several times reiterated that its mandate does not allow it to fight.
British troops may be prepared for more robust action, but probably reluctantly so, not least because Britain's armed forces are mainly focused on the hunt for Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan.
There are fears that some warlords, sensing their political impotence in the electoral process, may prefer to return to the power that comes from the barrel of a gun. A senior member of the Kamajor militia, Charles Mambu, has pointed the finger of blame at the non-governmental organisations (NGOs) involved in debriefing former-militia at the disarmament centres. He said that the three-week period of rehabilitation was too short to attain meaningful trauma treatment.
Whatever the shortcomings of the donor community, however, there are few who believe the current tension is not rooted, to a large extent, in fragmentary national politics. The RUF is not the only political body hoping to prevent Kabbah from attaining a second five-year term in office. Already some 23 political parties have sprung up to contest the election.
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