Global Policy Forum

By Andrew Cawthorne

Many international diplomats are touting an African peacekeeping force as the answer to Somalia's myriad problems and a way to get Ethiopian troops out. But even getting such a mission into Somalia looks fraught with problems, let alone actually taming the chaos in a nation that defied U.N. and U.S. peacekeepers more than a decade ago. "I don't think sub-Saharan Africa is in a position to mount a successful operation in Somalia," UK-based Africa specialist Tom Cargill said. "Just look back to 1993. That was a coalition of some of the world's most advanced forces, but it failed."

In public, the African Union and east African body IGAD are upbeat. They say they are willing in principle to send more than 8,000 peacekeepers into Somalia, providing funding is forthcoming and member nations cough up troops and equipment. Such a mission would be intended to help the interim government of President Abdullahi Yusuf stabilise and pacify the nation since the ouster of Islamists who ruled most of the south for six months before a two-week war over the New Year.

Ethiopia wants to pull out its troops, who provided the military muscle against the Islamists, within weeks. But there are fears the government, which lacks a national power-base or truly popular support, could implode if that happens without peacekeepers replacing them. Only Uganda, so far, has said it will send soldiers into Somalia, but its leaders are blowing hot-and-cold, given the obvious risks. Nigeria and South Africa are also possibilities.

"But when African military bosses impress upon politicians the realities and true risks, they will realise it is just not realistic," said U.S. Somalia analyst Ken Menkhaus. "They cannot move into a non-permissive environment, they will be slaughtered ... My fear is that they won't deploy in time, Ethiopia will withdraw, and this risks a quagmire, with Somalia reverting to the pre-war situation of anarchy."

AFRICAN SOLUTIONS?

Nobody in Africa has forgotten the last international push to pacify Somalia when U.N. and U.S. would-be peacekeepers tried to sort out the anarchy left by the 1991 ouster of a dictator. The U.S. exit came months after 18 of its soldiers were killed and dragged through the streets of Mogadishu in an incident later portrayed in the "Black Hawk Down" film. While many around the continent deeply feel the need to provide African solutions to African problems, the precedent in another hot-spot -- Sudan's Darfur region -- is not encouraging. There, an over-stretched, under-funded and under-equipped African Union force has failed to stop conflict. "They have only been able to report abuses, not stop them," Cargill said. So why would Somalia be different, many are asking.

"It's not that African peacekeepers are inherently less capable than others. In fact, they're often tougher and more adaptable," an African diplomat in Nairobi said. "But they don't get the money, the backup, all that sophisticated equipment that a U.N. peacekeeper can rely on."

Another problem awaiting African peacekeepers if they do go into Somalia is the threat of jihad from Muslim radicals. Al Qaeda leaders including Osama bin Laden have said the existing Ethiopian occupiers, and any other foreign peacekeepers who may move into Somalia, are legitimate targets for Muslims worldwide to counter a Western-led "crusade" against Islam. Some diplomats suggest the Arab League could be brought into a peacekeeping mission to help dilute that threat.

While the United States is dead set on getting African peacekeepers in quickly and has already pledged funds, the European Union has been more equivocal. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana suggested U.N. peacekeepers should follow a first batch of AU troops, while the bloc's aid commissioner Louis Michel said support was linked to proof the Somali government was reaching out to all players.

Analyst Menkhaus said all precedents showed a peacekeeping force could not be assembled in a hurry, and would only work if, as Michel said, the mission was seen as supporting a national reconciliation process rather than propping the government. "And the opposition is not just the Islamists, but the clans, businesses, civic groups and others who are badly under-represented in the government," he said.

Whatever happens, most agree Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi does not want to hang around long in Somalia, where his forces have been attacked in recent days and are a focus to galvanise both Somali religious and nationalistic sentiment. Having achieved his main objective of smashing an Islamist movement threatening Ethiopia's interests in the region, the messy job of pacification is less of a priority, analysts say.

"Ethiopia will blame the international community for failing to send peacekeepers, and go back to the border, then there will be chaos again," Cargill said. "As long as it is contained anarchy, Somalia is not such a problem for Ethiopia."

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