Global Policy Forum

Both Sides Losing Control

By Edith M. Lederer

The top UN envoy to Sudan warned the Security Council yesterday that the vast region of Darfur could easily descend into anarchy with warlords in control unless African Union troops deploy quickly and peace negotiations speed up. The 20-month conflict in the western region is changing in character, with the government not fully in control of its forces and a leadership crisis within the rebel movements, Jan Pronk said. The envoy accused both sides of violating an April cease-fire agreement and seeking more territory in Darfur, which is about the size of France. While there was slow progress on the political front in October, Pronk said, violence and insecurity increased and in recent days "the situation deteriorated and tension rose to a level unprecedented since early August."

"Fighting is breaking out in more and more places. Parties are provoking one another. Militias are ganging up. Governmental authorities are not able to exert a moderating influence, or they respond with untimely and even counterproductive measures," he said. "If this negative trend is not reversed it is a recipe for disaster," Pronk warned. "If the fighting continues crops will fail. Then the whole population of Darfur will become dependent on humanitarian assistance."

The United Nations has called Darfur the world's worst humanitarian crisis, saying the conflict has claimed 70,000 lives since March - mostly through disease and hunger. Violence started after two non-Arab rebel groups launched attacks in February 2003. Originally a clash between black African farmers and Arab nomads over the distribution of scarce resources, the conflict has grown into a counterinsurgency in which pro-government Arab militiamen have raped and killed their enemy and burned their villages.

An international commission appointed by UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan began work on Oct. 25 and has three months to study human rights violations and determine whether a genocide occurred in Darfur. Sudan also faces the threat of UN sanctions. "Darfur may easily enter a state of anarchy; a total collapse of law and order," Pronk warned. The expanded African Union force must deploy rapidly "to effectively deter violations," Pronk said.

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