June 13, 2002
The Saharawis' last-ditch fight for self-determination
Was Morocco's revelation this week of al-Qaeda's alleged plans to blow up British and American warships in the Strait of Gibraltar a payback for American support on Western Sahara? Ahead of a Security Council vote on April 30th, the Americans had circulated a draft resolution proposing that the UN give its blessing to Morocco's 1975 annexation of the desert territory, while providing the hapless Saharawis with the pickings of self-rule.
In the end the Security Council postponed taking a decision for a further three months. But the Moroccans are quietly confident that the end is nigh for Saharawi hopes of gaining their own state: support for Morocco's position on Western Sahara is one of the few issues on which America and France agree. The Americans helped to push through the 1991 plan that promised the Saharawis a referendum on self-determination. But Morocco thwarted this plan, and now America, too, is siding with the strong against the weak.
What can the Saharawis do? Ironically for a desert dispute, the battle for Western Sahara is now being waged at sea, by way of the multinational firms prospecting for oil off the Atlantic coast. Their arsenals reflect their relative strengths. The Moroccans have heavyweights: the French giant, Total Fina Elf, and the American middle-ranking player, Kerr McGee. The Saharawis have the services of a minor Australian oil company, Fusion.
This is unlikely to lead to gunboat diplomacy. Fusion's brief is simply to examine available data. And even to tempt it on board, the Saharawi independence movement, Polisario, had to concede an option to explore almost a third of territorial waters should Western Sahara ever get statehood. Nevertheless, the counter-claim is a reminder that the former Spanish colony's mineral wealth is not uncontested.
Earlier this year, the UN's legal adviser determined that Morocco would be in violation of international law if it allowed foreign firms to produce oil from the disputed territory without taking into account the interests of its inhabitants. Incidentally, Morocco's relationship with oil has not, so far, been a happy one. When King Mohammed chose his birthday party to announce that Morocco had struck huge lakes of oil, the black gold turned out to be mud.
Morocco's Western Saharan policy could also founder on the question of human rights. The Laayoune branch of the Rabat-based Forum for Truth and Justice is reported to have produced a report accusing the Moroccan authorities of genocide against the Saharawis. But when two of the alleged compilers presented it to the Human Rights Commission in Geneva, the Moroccans threatened to dissolve the forum's office in Western Sahara. The denial of free access to journalists—most recently a Spanish delegation whose arrival had long been scheduled—has done nothing to erase suspicions that Morocco has something to hide.
It is not just the beleaguered Saharawis under Moroccan rule, and the tens of thousands more wasting away in desert refugee camps in Algeria, who are held as hostages pending a solution. It is the whole of the Maghreb. The Arab Maghreb Union has gathered cobwebs since its creation in 1988, partly as a result of the spat over what Algeria's president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, calls Western Sahara's "decolonisation". Later this month, the region's five leaders were due to meet for the first time since 1995 to try to open their borders, and revive their economies. The Moroccans are doing all they can to keep Western Sahara off the agenda. But this week Libya's leader, Muammar Qaddafi, offered to mediate an end to Africa's longest-running dispute. This helpful offer prompted King Mohammed to pull out of the summit.
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