Global Policy Forum

By Betsy Pisik

The United Nations General Assembly will vote today to change one-third of the Security Council, giving the Philippines, Algeria, the West African Republic of Benin, Brazil and Romania a voice in maintaining international peace and stability. The five new members - who replace Guinea, Syria, Bulgaria, Mexico and Cameroon - begin their two-year terms on Jan 1.

They are unlikely to make major waves, according to diplomats and observers, but the character of some debates will surely shift. The largest single shift will come from within the Asian group, which will be represented by the Philippines instead of Syria. Damascus has taken seriously its role as the sole Arab voice on the council but has also allowed its increasingly tense stand-off with Israel to colour its positions. On at least two occasions, its delegates have abstained from voting on resolutions that the Palestinians and other Arab nations had accepted. Algeria will now assume the Arab mantle.

While a security council seat brings prestige, the 10 elected members of the council have been constantly overshadowed by the 'permanent five' - Russia, China, Britain, France and the US - who hold the power of veto. The most prickly of decisions are made in private and then presented to the 10 for cosmetic suggestions.

The increasing willingness of the US to act alone on controversial issues such as Iraq, Israel and the Palestinian territories has further frustrated diplomats, some of whom dryly refer to Washington as the 'permanent one'. Other world leaders have denounced American unilateralism but for the council's smaller or less powerful elected members, bilateralism is more intimidating.

Observers say the Philippines - reliant on Washington for military and development assistance - is likely to mirror the US vote. Bulgaria did not vote against the US, and few expect its successor, Romania, to show more independence - especially with its membership of Nato being on the line. Brazil, which has recently been building its role as the voice of the developing world, could bring a host of South American-specific perspectives to the council's horseshoe-shaped table.

Then again, it might not. Brazil is desperate to take a permanent seat on the Security Council and there are many who think it stands a good chance of edging out Argentina. Council enlargement is still likely to be years away but with a permanent seat at stake, Brazil may be reluctant to be too passionate an advocate for the disenfranchised. 'Economic and social rights aren't really the council's domain, but there are ways,' said International Peace Academy senior analyst Simon Chesterman. While the council's make-up will change, its agenda will remain largely the rebuilding of Iraq, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.

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