Global Policy Forum

By Patrick Burnett

A few years ago it was an unknown blot on the map wedged between Cameroon and Gabon and home to roughly 525 000 people. But within a few years it has quietly rocketed up the rankings to become Africa's third largest oil producer. In 2004 it has firmly grabbed international attention with a coup plot that just keeps on unravelling.

The latest revelations on the Equatorial Guinea coup plot confirm earlier speculation that it was an 'open secret' within the global intelligence community. Last weekend the Observer UK reported that the British government knew about the coup several months before it was launched. The Observer said two reports on the coup were handed to British Intelligence and to a senior colleague of US defence secretary Donald Rumsfield. This news steps up the pressure on Tony Blair's government to explain why they failed to act according to international norms and warn the government of Equatorial Guinea.

Sharper questions for the UK government to reveal how much it knew come at an embarrassing time for Tony Blair. Blair has previously described Africa as a "scar on the conscience of the world". More recently he created the Commission for Africa to probe Africa's development challenges. Last week the Commission began a series of meetings throughout the continent aimed at gathering input on Africa's challenges. Blair will be keen to avoid any implication that his government tacitly supported the plot.

News of the plot first broke in March when Zimbabwean police in Harare impounded a plane which flew in from South Africa with 64 alleged mercenaries on board. A few days later, an Equatorial Guinean minister said they had detained 15 more men who were the advance party for the group captured in Zimbabwe. Nick du Toit, the leader of the group in Equatorial Guinea who has now been sentenced to a lengthy jail term - Amnesty International last week condemned the court proceedings - said at his trial in Equatorial Guinea that he was recruited by Simon Mann, the alleged leader of the group held in Zimbabwe. He said he was told they were trying to install an exiled opposition politician, Severo Moto, as head. In September, Mann was sentenced to seven years in jail in Zimbabwe after being convicted of illegally trying to buy weapons. Also implicated in the plot is Sir Mark Thatcher, the son of the former British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher. The South African authorities have arrested Sir Mark and charged him with contravening two sections of South Africa's Foreign Military Assistance Act. He denies the charges. Sir Mark has admitted to being friends with Mann. Mann, according to his confession to Zimbabwean authorities, went on a roadshow to get support for the coup from wealthy British businessmen. Other high profile names that have surfaced include the novelist Jeffrey Archer and Lebanese oil tycoon, Eli Calil, who has British citizenship and previous ties with former UK government minister and new European Commissioner Peter Mandelson. Both Archer and Calil have denied any knowledge of the coup and Mandelson has denied being in touch with Calil over the plot.

Equatorial Guinea has become strategically important because of the discovery of lucrative oil reserves. US interest in the country has increased because it offers a way for it to diversify its oil supply away from the volatile Middle East. Estimates show that the US now relies on West Africa for 15 percent of its oil. US Vice President Dick Cheney, a former oil company executive, has previously declared: "Along with Latin America, West Africa is expected to be one of the fastest-growing sources of oil and gas for the American market."

Equatorial Guinea, a former Spanish colony, has been ruled by President Obiang since he seized power from his uncle in a coup in 1979. His government has been accused of widespread human rights abuses and of suppressing political opposition. The oil industry, including companies with close ties to the Bush administration such as Exxon Mobile and Chevron Texaco, have previously attempted to boost Obiang's public image to overcome concern about his human rights record. At a corporate dinner in Washington in 2002, he was described as the country's "first democratically elected president" and a man who has "embarked on the total physical reconstruction of his country and the improvement of the welfare of all its citizens." This was despite the fact that social development indicators have remained low even though billions of dollars in oil money has been pumped into the country. Life expectancy is at 55 years and infant maternal mortality is 87 per 1000 births.

One explanation for the silence of Western governments has been that they were keen to see regime change in the oil-rich state because it suited their strategic and commercial interests, and because they were embarrassed by their dealings with a regime accused of human rights abuses. According to this theory the UK and US governments would have made a tactical decision to keep quiet and let a privately-backed coup run its course and do the dirty work.

A more cynical theory could be that Obiang was making noises about the re-negotiation of oil contracts. Oil companies initially claimed 87 percent of oil receipts but this has declined to 75 percent in recent years. The industry standard is 50 percent. But this in turn raises questions about where the coup plans originated. Did Mann originate the plot, or did the plan originate elsewhere?

In September, The Guardian UK reported that Theresa Whelan, a member of the Bush administration in charge of African affairs at the Pentagon, twice met a London-based businessman, Greg Wales, in Washington before the coup attempt. The Guardian said Mr Wales had been accused of being one of its organisers, but he has denied any involvement. The report went on to detail how at a Washington event attended by Wales and organised by the International Peace Operations Association, a euphemistic name for an influential group of US "private military companies" Whelan told the group the Pentagon was keen to see them operate in Africa, saying: "Contractors are here to stay in supporting US national security objectives overseas." She added: "The US can be supportive in trying to ameliorate regional crises without necessarily having to put US troops on the ground, which is often a very difficult political decision. Sometimes we may not want to be very visible."

While reports such as these raise the speculation level, there is no evidence at this stage that the coup plot originated anywhere other than with the mercenaries named although the possibility of this being a rough and ready form of "regime change" cannot be completely discarded. Clearly, many questions remain to be answered before the gap between truth and fiction can be narrowed.

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