Global Policy Forum

By David E. Sanger and David E. Rosenbaum

The Bush administration said today that Saddam Hussein's decision to cut off Iraq's oil exports for at least a month, or until Israel pulls out of the West Bank, makes it urgent for the Senate to allow drilling for oil in the Alaska wildlife refuge.

In spite of that warning, though, there was no evidence that Iraq's move would end the deadlock in the Senate, where environmental concerns have so far blocked a vote on drilling in Alaska. Even as the White House was declaring that an Iraqi cutoff could further raise gasoline and heating oil prices, oil prices were dropping on the futures market, at least partly because of indications that Saudi Arabia and other major producers would make up any production shortfall.

"The president knows that ANWR represents 46 years' worth of imports of oil from Saddam Hussein's Iraq," Ari Fleischer, the White House spokesman, said today, using a somewhat aggressive estimate of the amount of reserves in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. "And the president thinks that Saddam Hussein's threat, the promise to cut off oil, is another reason why our nation needs a comprehensive energy plan that is independent of such threats."

The White House announcement was the most explicit effort yet to use the turmoil in the Middle East to press for what has become a symbolically vital part of its national energy plan. Last year, Mr. Bush said the economic downturn in the United States was an argument for proceeding with the drilling.

So far, however, Republicans concede that neither argument has enabled them to assemble the 60 votes needed to overcome the opponents of drilling in the refuge and force a vote on the issue.

Last month, the administration vigorously opposed an effort in the Senate to raise fuel efficiency standards for automobiles and trucks sold in the United States, a change that advocates had argued would save far more oil than Iraq or the Alaska wildlife refuge could produce. White House officials insisted there was no contradiction in the policy, contending that by mandating stricter mileage standards, Congress would force auto companies to produce more small, unsafe cars.

"We will come back with another, more flexible plan" on mileage standards, Mr. Fleischer said today, though he did not say when. Even before the Iraqi cutoff, lawmakers from both parties agreed that the United States should become less dependent on imported oil. But partisan and regional differences -- and ferocious lobbying -- have left Congress paralyzed.

Most Republicans believe the solution lies in more oil production, particularly exploration in the wildlife refuge on Alaska's north coast. Most Democrats hold that the solution is conservation, particularly stiffer fuel efficiency standards. Both sides are so locked into their positions that compromise appears to be out of the question, even if the Mideast is in turmoil and Venezuela, a main producer of gasoline, is suffering from political instability and strikes at refineries and oil fields.

"In some ways," a senior administration official said today, "we're more concerned about how Venezuela could affect prices" than about Iraq's effect. Iraq has produced 1.5 million to 2 million barrels a day in recent times, mostly shipped through a pipeline to Turkey. That flow has stopped in recent days, American intelligence officials confirm.

The Senate, controlled by Democrats, began debating energy legislation more than a month ago, and a final vote is not likely until next week at the earliest. But the outcome is hardly in doubt. The final bill will almost certainly include neither new drilling in Alaska nor tougher mileage standards. Senator Frank H. Murkowski, Republican of Alaska, said today that he would offer an amendment this week to allow exploration in the wildlife refuge. Democrats have promised to filibuster the measure, and Republicans concede they lack the 60 votes needed to stop it.

Last year, the Republican-controlled House voted narrowly to allow drilling in the refuge. Whatever energy bill the Senate approves will end up in a conference to resolve the differences with the House bill. But Senator Larry E. Craig of Idaho, a key Republican on energy issues, said that unless the Senate approved exploration in Alaska as part of its bill, the final measure would not include it either.

Last month, by a vote of 62 to 38, the Senate rejected a bill to require that the average mileage of vehicles sold in the United States rise to 36 miles a gallon by 2016, from about 24 miles a gallon now. Several Democrats from automobile-producing states broke ranks and voted with the Republicans. Federal fuel efficiency requirements have not been changed since 1985, and the mileage average has fallen for years because of the increasing popularity of sport utility vehicles, which are not subject to the same standards as cars.

This week, Senator Murkowski and his allies have made the same argument as Mr. Bush, that the threat from Iraq's decision to stop exports and the general strike in Venezuela underscored the need for more domestic oil exploration, especially in Alaska.

On Tuesday, they turned out representatives of several Jewish organizations, including B'nai Brith International and the American Jewish Congress, who said the security of Israel and the United States depended on more oil production. Some Republicans today were considering a proposal in which they would support giving steel manufacturers relief from the cost of death benefits and health care for retired workers in return for support of drilling in the refuge from Democratic senators from steel states.

But the White House has opposed this kind of relief for the steel industry, and there was little indication today that this plan would produce enough votes to break any filibuster. Democrats countered that even if drilling in the refuge began today, no new oil would be available for a decade. They said the Republicans' refusal to support tougher fuel-efficiency requirements showed they were not truly concerned about energy independence.

"The Middle East crisis is far too complicated to be calmed by drilling in the Arctic, and the fact that we're hearing such a far-flung argument tells me that our opponents don't have the votes," Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, Democrat of Connecticut, said. Also today, the Senate shelved a proposal that would have tightened federal regulation of financial instruments called derivatives in energy trading.

The proposal was opposed by most Republicans, and the sponsor, Senator Dianne Feinstein, Democrat of California, withdrew it when she could not muster enough votes to break a Republican filibuster. The Enron Corporation used derivatives in part to keep debt off its balance sheet, and the supporters of more government regulation called the use of derivatives a factor in the company's collapse.

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