Global Policy Forum

By Jean-Marie Guéhenno *

Around the world, about 25 places - depending how you count them - are now at war, down from a peak of more than 50 in the early 1990s. In terms of the number of people killed in battle, the world is at a hundred-year low. New conflicts sometimes start up, like Nepal's, but for every new conflict, two old ones are going out of business. There is less war than there used to be. This month's news from Burundi is the latest example of the trend. Some 200,000 people died in a 10-year civil war that created hundreds of thousands of refugees and destroyed the country's infrastructure. In the past year, however, with help from the United Nations and the international community, a Constitution has been approved, an election has been held, a democratically elected president has been sworn in and power is being transferred. The UN secretary general has asked the Security Council to keep peacekeeping troops in Burundi to help consolidate peace during disarmament and demobilization. Burundians finally have reason to be optimistic, but the rest of the world must continue to help so that Burundi has a chance for lasting peace.

Half a world away, the Irish Republican Army has declared an end to its armed struggle. Liberia is also at peace now, and more than 100,000 fighters have been demobilized in the past year. In East Timor and Sierra Leone, peacekeepers are packing up and going home, their work finished. Some are heading to Sudan, to help with a peace agreement to end a two-decade war that left two million people dead. The agreement there was generally seen as shaky, but seems to have held despite the death of John Garang, the leader of southern Sudan's long struggle. Any of these conflicts could again fall back into war, as peace usually takes a decade to take root. And there are still plenty of other places - from Afghanistan to Congo to Haiti - teetering between war and peace. But the numbers are going down, and even in those places, there is real hope. In Afghanistan, UN workers are helping to prepare for the first parliamentary elections since the overthrow of the Taliban. Congo is preparing for national elections and militia groups in the east are on the run after robust military action by UN peacekeepers. Haiti is moving toward re-establishing a democratic government while UN peacekeepers help the authorities stabilize a dangerous and fragile situation.

What has led to this wider trend away from war? One reason is economic growth, which has lifted much of East and South Asia out of the conflict trap. Another reason, in places where there has been no growth, is that we are getting better at dealing with conflict. Most conflicts in the world today, including the one that has just ended in Burundi, are civil wars and they are usually fought in the poorest countries, often where states have withered or collapsed. And although warlords may try to mobilize ethnic and religious hatreds, they are often more about local riches and resources than they are about big ideas. Outsiders usually cannot end these wars, but we do now have a set of tools that can push things in the right direction. We can help by limiting the revenues that warlords can gain from plundering natural resources, the way we have done with the "blood diamonds" that finance West Africa's wars. We can also help with mediation and treaty negotiations, as Nelson Mandela did to great effect in Burundi.

And when there is an agreement, we can send peacekeepers to provide transitional security and help organize the disarmament of former fighters. We can assist in setting up elections, we can provide help with constitutions and we can assist with humanitarian and economic aid. None of it is easy, or low-cost or risk-free. But all of it is absolutely essential when confronted with the horrific alternative that is war. I was in Burundi for the inauguration of the new president. There was joy among his followers, but the overwhelming sense among those I met was relief: relief that the conflict was over, and the long work of putting things back together again can begin. Success in Burundi shows what a conflict-torn people and their leaders can achieve when supported for the long haul by a region and the international community. Perhaps for the first time in history, the reach of collective peacekeeping is no longer exceeding its grasp.

About the Author: Jean-Marie Guéhenno is the UN Under Secretary General for peacekeeping operations.

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