Global Policy Forum

By Edith M. Lederer

The African Union is reasonably optimistic that it can reach agreement with Brazil, Germany, India and Japan on a plan to expand the Security Council that could win quick U.N. approval, Nigeria's foreign minister told The Associated Press on Wednesday. Oluyemi Adeniji, whose country heads the 53-nation regional organization, said a meeting on Monday of ministers from both sides is "very, very crucial" because it could be one of the last chances to reach a compromise that could be quickly put to a vote in the General Assembly.

Asked to assess the chances of emerging from the meeting, which has been moved from Geneva to London, with a unified draft and then getting two-thirds of the 191 U.N. member states to approve it, Adeniji used the same words: "reasonably optimistic." After 10 years of seemingly endless debate, Secretary-General Kofi Annan told U.N. member states in March that he wants a decision on Security Council expansion before September. That's when he has invited world leaders to a summit to take action to reduce global poverty and reform the United Nations.

There is widespread support for enlarging the current 15-member council to reflect the world today rather than global power after World War II when the United Nations was formed. But all previous attempts have failed because of national and regional rivalries. The U.N.'s most powerful body has 10 members elected for two-year terms representing different regions and five permanent members with veto power - Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States.

Last week, the so-called Group of Four - Brazil, Germany, India and Japan - introduced a resolution calling for the Security Council to be expanded to 25 members, adding six permanent members without veto power and four non-permanent members. This week, the African Union introduced a resolution to expand the council to 26 members, also adding six permanent members but with veto power and five non-permanent members.

At a meeting on Sunday, Adeniji said ministers from both sides agreed that their ambassadors should to try to bridge the differences over the veto issue and whether Africa should get one or two additional non-permanent seats. On Tuesday, the ambassadors explored several approaches on the veto and made "some progress," he said. "Hopefully, by the weekend ... they'll have some concrete proposals to submit to the ministers."

African countries have argued that it's time to end the historic injustice that left the continent without a permanent seat on the council. Adeniji said Africa believes the veto is undemocratic and should be eliminated but as long as the five current permanent members object, Africa wants the same veto right for all new permanent members.

Asked whether veto power was "a red line" that could not be negotiated, Adeniji said, "I would not qualify it as being a red line." He said African nations must now make a "very hard decision" - whether it was more important now to get two permanent seats or get the veto. "You cannot exercise veto if you are not a permanent member. ... But you can be a permanent member and then struggle" to get the veto later or abolish it.

Both proposals would give Africa two permanent seats. Adeniji said the African Union has insisted that it will select the two countries who must act on behalf of the continent. There are currently eight candidates, with South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt the frontrunners, according to U.N. diplomats.

The United States does not want to vote on enlarging the council until more sweeping changes are made at the United Nations. Washington also calls for "a modest expansion" with just two or so additional permanent seats. The United States supports a permanent seat for Japan. China is vehemently opposed.

Adeniji said the possibility of Washington and Beijing blocking council expansion can't be discounted. But "at the end of the day (the U.S.) Congress may not want to be seen as obstructing this process once it has gone that far," he said, and China as a "a good friend of Africa ... I don't think will carry its disagreement with one member state to the point of frustrating the wish or the legitimate ambition of Africa."

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