Global Policy Forum

By Alan Sipress

The Bush administration is likely to delay its efforts at overhauling U.N. economic sanctions on Iraq this fall and instead accept a continuation of the oil-for-food program for another six months, according to U.S. and diplomatic sources.

Administration officials have said for months they would seek to revamp the 11-year-old sanctions when they came up for renewal Dec. 3. But that plan has faced opposition from Russia, which could veto the proposal on the U.N. Security Council.

With Russia emerging as a key supporter of the American-led war in Afghanistan, U.S. officials are wary of provoking a disagreement with Moscow, U.S. and diplomatic sources said. Administration officials also see an opportunity to reach agreement with Russia over U.S. plans to test a missile defense system, a top U.S. foreign policy priority to which Moscow has long objected.

This delay would represent another setback for U.S. efforts to overhaul the sanctions, which have been an important element of the administration's overall Iraq policy. It was one of Secretary of State Colin L. Powell's earliest initiatives after taking office in January.

Senior U.S. officials have not decided whether to accept a six-month renewal of the sanctions, but "that's where we seem to be going," a State Department official said.

Officials said it remains unclear whether that determination will come before President Bush meets Russian President Vladimir Putin during a three-day summit next week. Bush intends to raise the issue of Iraq sanctions during those talks, U.S. officials said.

At a meeting last week, Powell and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov discussed the issue, leaving open the unlikely prospect of a last-minute deal on a new Security Council resolution.

But U.S. officials have already begun telling foreign diplomats the administration will likely wait until spring to press for "smart sanctions," designed to ease restrictions on civilian imports while tightening those on goods bound for President Saddam Hussein's military and weapons programs.

The oil-for-food program allows Iraq to sell its oil and spend the revenue on food, medicine and other humanitarian supplies. U.S. officials have criticized the program, arguing that it has too many loopholes even as it leaves Washington open to criticism that the sanctions are contributing to civilian suffering in Iraq.

Hoshyar Zebari, a top Iraqi Kurdish official opposed to Hussein's government, said he was told of the proposed delay during recent talks with officials from the State Department and United Nations. European and other diplomats said they were aware the administration has been considering deferring taking the issue to the Security Council.

An earlier attempt by the United States and Britain to reshape the sanctions program stalled in the spring, when they failed to win Russian assent. U.S. officials settled for an extension of the oil-for-food program through December and pledged to redouble their efforts during the summer and fall to win Moscow's agreement.

With commercial interests in Iraq, Russia has wanted to see the sanctions suspended and previously threatened to veto a restructured set of restrictions. The sanctions were imposed on Baghdad after it invaded Kuwait in 1990.

Since the spring discussions at the United Nations, U.S.-Russian relations have improved markedly, raising the hope in Washington and other capitals that differences over Iraq could be ironed out. "If the Russians are intent on blocking it, they can block it," a diplomat said. "I really don't know where the Russians are right now. It's a little unclear."

At the same time, with U.S.-Russian cooperation growing in efforts to fight terrorism and reach a new accommodation on missile defenses, administration officials have little appetite to confront Moscow over Iraq, U.S. and diplomatic sources said.

"There's a sense after September 11th that there's a larger issue out there -- an issue that strikes more clearly at American national security," a State Department official said.

Some Bush officials are unsure whether restrictions on civilian imports to Iraq should be eased now. Though the United States has long said it does not seek to make ordinary Iraqis suffer, the administration is trying to demonstrate since the Sept. 11 attacks that it is getting tough with state sponsors of terrorism, such as Iraq.

"There is some concern that any refining changes to the sanctions regime could be seen as lessening the burden on Saddam Hussein. In this atmosphere, it's not the message the U.S. would like to send," a diplomat said.

Administration officials, however, recognize there are several reasons to press ahead with a new sanctions program this fall. For one, an effort to ease the suffering of Iraqi civilians might improve American standing in the Arab and Muslim worlds at a time when U.S. bombing of Afghanistan faces criticism in some quarters.

Moreover, the task of adopting a new sanctions program could be complicated next year by the presence of Syria on the Security Council beginning in January. Syria has criticized the sanctions and has been looking to enhance economic and other ties with neighboring Iraq.

Special correspondent Colum Lynch at the United Nations contributed to this report.

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