44. In light of its deliberations, the expert group concluded that the two items on its agenda, namely, developing a methodology for assessing the consequences actually incurred by third States as a result of preventive or enforcement measures, and exploring innovative and practical measures of international assistance to the affected third States, were closely interrelated and mutually complementary. It felt, therefore, that its recommendations should address both issues taken together, in order to deal, in a more comprehensive and effective way, with the special economic problems of States affected by the application of sanctions. Accordingly, the group outlined a set of general guidelines for the whole process of assessing and alleviating the adverse effects of sanctions on third States. If accepted, the proposed approach would include a number of practical steps to be taken sequentially and to be applicable to all future cases of economic sanctions, although within each step there may be variations of procedures and measures on a case-by-case basis. The overall process/methodology is described as follows.
(1) To facilitate the process of impact assessment, the group recommended drawing up a tentative list of potential effects of sanctions on third States. Obviously, such a list cannot be exhaustive and should be adjusted in each specific case, depending on the nature of sanctions, the structure and intensity of economic relations with the target country and other factors which may be particularly relevant (e.g. geography). These potential effects, both direct and indirect, may be grouped into three broad categories: (a) economic, trade and financial effects; (b) social and humanitarian effects, with particular reference to most vulnerable social groups (e.g. refugees and migrant workers); and (c) secondary effects which are usually associated with the problems of sanctions' enforcement. Main elements of the proposed list are identified and discussed in paragraphs 8-15 above.
(2) When considering the imposition of a sanctions regime, the Security Council may wish to request the Secretary-General to submit, within a short period of time (e.g. two weeks), an advance assessment of the potential impact of sanctions on the target country and, in particular, on third States. Based on available statistical data regarding external economic links of the target country, such a preliminary analysis may effectively predict the bulk of possible adverse effects of the intended measures on third countries, without prejudice to a more detailed assessment which may be needed at a later stage. In turn, taking into account the concerns of States most likely to be seriously affected by such measures prior to their adoption would be an essential factor in ensuring the effectiveness of sanctions and minimizing collateral damage.
(3) Following the imposition of sanctions, the Secretariat should be entrusted with the task of monitoring the effects of sanctions, with a view to providing to the Security Council and its organs timely information and early assessments on the effects of the sanctions regime in third States which are or may be most seriously affected by the implementation of sanctions. The purpose of such assessments would be to advise the Council and its sanctions committee on specific needs and problems of those third States and present possible options so that, while maintaining the effectiveness of the sanctions regime, appropriate adjustments or partial changes may be introduced to the administration of the regime or the regime itself, in order to mitigate the adverse effects on such States.
(4) With regard to States invoking Article 50 of the Charter of the United Nations, the Secretariat should be prepared to provide technical assistance to such States, at their request, in preparing the explanatory materials to be attached to their requests for consultations with the Security Council, with a view to finding a solution to their special economic problems arising from the implementation of sanctions. The tentative list of potential effects of sanctions on third States, with appropriate adjustments according to the specific features of the sanctions regime, may serve as a useful framework for national assessments and would enable the Security Council to consider individual cases on a comparable basis. The Council may also wish to request the Secretariat to provide additional information and analysis with regard to national assessments.
(5) In most severe cases, the Secretary-General may wish to appoint a Special Representative to undertake, in cooperation with the Governments concerned, a full assessment of the consequences actually incurred by the specially affected countries as a result of carrying out the United Nations-imposed sanctions and identify appropriate and adequate measures of assistance to such States., To this end, the Special Representative may wish to put in place an inter-agency arrangement or task force which would consist of three subgroups, with the participation of representatives of the relevant international organizations both within and outside the United Nations system. Accordingly, one subgroup would be responsible for the matters related to evaluating and mitigating the economic, trade and financial effects of sanctions and, therefore, would include representatives of the international financial and trade institutions, in particular the World Bank, IMF, UNCTAD and WTO. The second subgroup would deal with the social and humanitarian effects of sanctions and would include representatives of the United Nations development programmes and specialized agencies concerned, such as LJNDP, UNICEF, UNHCR, WFP, ILO, FAO, WHO, ICRC. The third subgroup would address the secondary effects of sanctions, by recommending appropriate amendments to the administration of sanctions regimes, partial or limited exemptions under exceptional circumstances and other non-financial measures, with a view to maximizing the political impact of sanctions and minimizing their collateral damage. In its work, the latter group may also draw upon specialized expertise, both from inside and outside the United Nations system, in particular the regional organizations.
(6) The above subgroups would have the primary responsibility for preparing the impact assessments and action-oriented proposals in their respective areas of competence. Depending on the nature of the problems and the availability of information, each subgroup would adopt an appropriate methodology for assessing the particular category of effects under its purview. As summarized and analysed in paragraphs 16-29 above, the five practical methods of impact assessment, namely: (a) time series analysis of balance of payments changes- (b) stratified sample survey of firms; (c) gravity model of bilateral trade flows; (d) regression equation of income shocks; and (e) analytic hierarchy process for perception surveys, or any combination thereof, provide needed flexibility in this regard. In addition, for most severely affected third countries, the task of impact assessment may be best served by special fact-finding missions being dispatched on the ground. The Special Representative would have the ultimate responsibility for coordinating the work of the subgroups and for combining their assessments and proposals into an overall report to be submitted to the Secretary-General.
(7) 11-The report of the Special Representative should also include concrete proposals on practical measures of assistance to the affected third States, as appropriate (see paragraphs 30-43 above). Thus, the Special Representative may be requested to coordinate the follow-up assistance activities on behalf of the affected countries or regions.
