Global Policy Forum

By Joseph Coleman

Already at the center of the world debate about possible war in Iraq, the U.N. Security Council is about to have another global flashpoint to deal with: the standoff over North's Korea's suspected nuclear weapons development.

The question now is whether the council can do anything about it.The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, meets today and is widely expected to refer the nuclear dispute to the council, setting in motion a process that could lead to sanctions against the communist regime in Pyongyang.

But a host of factors could complicate consideration of sanctions. Russian and Chinese support is questionable, South Korea is pushing for more time to engage the North, and Pyongyang has said it would consider sanctions "a declaration of war."

"Unless you have a process prewired, a consensus on what the Security Council would do ... then it's possible that the referral in and of itself would be ineffective," said Scott Snyder, Asia Foundation representative in South Korea. "There is not a consensus in favor of sanctions.

"The move to the Security Council is part of a U.S. push to involve other countries in the dispute, which North Korea has cast as exclusively between Pyongyang and Washington. Washington, however, has not said specifically that it would seek sanctions.Secretary of State Colin Powell has urged China, North Korea's main ally, to take a larger role in convincing Pyongyang to give up its nuclear plans. On Tuesday, the U.S. ambassador to South Korea, Thomas Hubbard, reiterated the U.S. preference for a multilateral approach.

"The Board of Governors of the IAEA ... will meet soon, and we expect it to relay its concerns about North Korea to the United Nations Security Council," Hubbard said at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul. "The world community must continue to insist, clearly and firmly, that North Korea must not disregard its international obligations.

"Seoul has already done what it could to delay IAEA referral to the Security Council. The Vienna, Austria-based nuclear agency considered meeting on Feb. 3, but moved the meeting to today after South Korea pleaded for more time for talks with the North.

But South Korea relented after the North refused to commit to specific steps to defuse the standoff during talks in Seoul in January, and Southern envoys failed to win a widely expected meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in subsequent talks in Pyongyang.

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