Global Policy Forum

By Patrick Goodenough

Moves to punish North Korea for firing a series of missiles are, as expected, running into hurdles in the United Nations Security Council, where Russia and China are loathe to consider the imposition of sanctions -- or even a council resolution. In a stance that mirrors their positions on Iran and Sudan, veto-wielding members China and Russia look set to block efforts by the U.S. and its allies to respond strongly to the latest provocation by the Kim Jong-il regime, which lobbed at least seven short-, medium- and long-range missiles into the Sea of Japan as Americans celebrated Independence Day.

During an emergency meeting in New York Wednesday, non-permanent Security Council member Japan prepared a resolution, backed by the U.S. and Britain, that would require nations to withhold money, know-how and equipment that could benefit North Korea's military sector. Japanese ambassador Kenzo Oshima said Tokyo was hoping for a "swift, strong and resolute" response. But French envoy Jean Marc de la Sabliere, whose country holds the council's rotating presidency this month, said afterwards that China and Russia were pushing for a presidential statement. A statement from the body's president is a far weaker diplomatic response to a crisis than a legally binding resolution entailing sanctions.

Russian Ambassador Vitali Churkin said that while his country shared fellow council members' "serious concern" about the missile tests, it wanted the council to consider a presidential statement as the "proper format" for a response. He warned against "whipping up emotions too much" and played down the idea that sanctions would be considered. His Chinese counterpart, Wang Guangya, was publicly non-committal, telling reporters "if all council members feel that some appropriate action is needed by the council, we will see."

In Beijing, the foreign ministry issued a statement hinting at its opposition to any actions against North Korea. It urged "all parties" involved in the issue to "refrain from doing things that will increase tensions and complicate the situation."

China is North Korea's closest ally and a key supplier of food and energy to the impoverished fellow communist state. Both China and Russia tend to resist attempts by Western nations to secure strongly worded U.N. resolutions or impose sanctions on rogue regimes, typically citing concerns about worsening already unstable situations and opposition to what they see as outside interference in countries' sovereign affairs.

Armed with the veto power they enjoy in the Security Council, the two have blocked bids to pressure Iran into abandoning its controversial nuclear activities and to punish Sudan for the bloodshed in Darfur. They used similar tactics earlier in the standoff with Saddam Hussein's Iraq.

The last time North Korea raised international temperatures with a missile test -- firing a medium-range rocket over Japan in 1998 -- China led opposition to a resolution, and the council merely issued a press statement, two weeks later, expressing regret. The following year, Kim pledged a moratorium on medium- and long-range missile launches, an assurance he repeated during a historic summit with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in 2002.

This week's tests appear to have flouted not just the moratorium undertaking, but also the spirit of a joint statement signed by North Korea and five other governments at six-party nuclear talks last September. The two Koreas, the U.S., Japan, China and Russia then agreed to make "a joint effort for the regional peace and stability of Northeast Asia."

U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton said Wednesday that the circumstances now -- with North Korea having launched at least seven missiles -- were different from those in 1998. The regional security situation since the 1998 test and the potential threat North Korea poses to its neighbors and beyond has also deteriorated significantly.

In 2002, it emerged that North Korea had been cheating on an agreement signed with the Clinton administration in 1994, freezing its nuclear weapons development programs in exchange for food and fuel aid and help to build civilian nuclear reactors. The deal collapsed, North Korea expelled International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, restarted mothballed facilities and withdrew from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

In February of last year, North Korea announced it now possessed nuclear weapons, although in the absence of a test, that claim has not been verified.

Concessions sought

Six-party talks aimed at resolving the crisis have been suspended since last fall. Pyongyang refuses to return to the China-hosted negotiations unless the U.S. drops financial sanctions on a Macao-based bank accused of collaborating with North Korean counterfeiting and money-laundering operations.

Michael Needham, director of the Asian Study Center at the Heritage Foundation, said that by carrying out the tests, Kim Jong-il wanted "to return North Korea to the front of international security discussions, a position more recently held by Iran and Iraq," provide him with the attention he craves and wrest concessions from the international community, especially bilateral talks with the U.S. outside the six-party framework. Needham said the U.S. should maintain its commitment to the six-party talks, join its Japanese allies in imposing sanctions on Pyongyang and "push the United Nations Security Council to punish North Korea's belligerent behavior with more than just a presidential statement."

Apart from the discussions in New York, other diplomacy has been reported around the world, with a flurry of contacts among foreign ministers and other senior officials from countries including the U.S., China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and Australia. Christopher Hill, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia, was heading for the region, where he was expected to visit China, Japan, South Korea and Russia to discuss the crisis.

China's deputy foreign minister, Wu Dawei, is due to visit Pyongyang on July 11 in a bid to persuade North Korea to return to the six-party talks. Several days before the missile tests, Wu put forward a proposal for the six countries to hold an "informal" meeting in a bid to kickstart the process.

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