Global Policy Forum

By Elisabeth Olson with Birgit Brauer

With China's membership in the World Trade Organization set to be sealed at the group's summit meeting in Qatar over the next few days, Russia remains the only big world power outside the global trade club.That is a major disappointment to Russia's president, Vladimir V. Putin, who has made entry into the 142-country group a top priority. The Kremlin, which began its bid eight years ago, sees membership as crucial to its effort to remake its checkered reputation as a tough place to do business.

Concerns over Russia's ability to transform its markets and come up with changes to its legal system that would help protect contract and property rights have shadowed several years of accession talks.

But now, the war on terrorism has ramped up Russia's chances as America has begun to take a noticeably softer tone toward its new coalition partner. The United States trade representative, Robert B. Zoellick, visited Moscow at the end of September and talked with top officials there about Russia's entry into the W.T.O. Russian negotiators are set to convene again at the trade group's headquarters in Geneva on Dec. 10.

"It's a new political world," one American trade negotiator said. "We have been meeting with them and are changing our expectations for accession. The amount of energy we've been devoting has definitely increased."

Floundering economically just three years ago, Russia began a series of reforms to overcome impediments to business and attract foreign investment.

That, along with the country's new relationship with the West, may ease the atmosphere of the talks, which have often been frosty.

Last July, for instance, a W.T.O. committee questioned whether Moscow could bring its laws into line with group membership requirements. Russia has dozens of bills pending to remake its legal structure in areas including intellectual property and contracts.

Stung by the tortuous negotiations with China, during which promises were often made and broken, some member countries had resolved to be tougher on Russia, nailing down all the membership requirements in advance.

Russian negotiators were furious at suggestions that they submit draft legislation to the W.T.O. for approval. Russia's chief negotiator, Maxim Medvedkov, said that constituted treatment different from what other countries seeking membership had received, including the former Soviet republics Georgia and Moldova, which joined recently. There were Russian mutterings that "now they want to legislate our laws from Capitol Hill," according to one negotiator.

At the time, Russia had been pressing for entry as early as 2002, but Mr. Medvedkov said the date would more likely be three or four years away. That timetable could well be moved up now. "There is a willingness on the part of W.T.O. to speed up the accession of Russia because we realize it is doing hard work in adapting and adopting its legislation," said a spokesman for the trade group, Josef Bosch.Mike Moore, the group's director general, has strongly backed Russia's entry. He traveled to Moscow last March to support the Kremlin's effort, noting that among Russia's toughest hurdles are its agricultural policies, which are running up against demands by the Americans, Australians and Europeans for freer market access.

Russia does not want to be left behind its former Soviet subordinates. In addition to Georgia and Moldova, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Kyrgyzstan have joined the W.T.O. Kyrgyzstan is the only Central Asian country that has joined, but Tajikistan has applied and Kazakhstan is also eager to belong.

Kyrgyzstan, the first former Soviet republic to join, in 1998, has not seen much benefit yet, largely because it joined far ahead of its neighbors, and those neighbors have done little to expedite the passage of Kyrgyzstan's exports, experts say.

Kazakhstan's deputy prime minister, Oraz Jandosov, is also keenly aware of the issue. "It is important for Kazakhstan to join W.T.O. at the same time as Russia," he said, to "avoid distortions in the existing trade balance."

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