Global Policy Forum

In a field of dry sorghum, Abraha Garza picks a cluster of seeds for closer inspection. Squeezing the seeds between his fingers, he watches as they flake to dust and disintegrate in the wind. "This is what the harvest has brought us this year," says Abraha who heads the agriculture ministry in Gash Barka - normally Eritrea's most productive province. He is standing in a ruined crop field which stretches to the horizon in every direction. "There is nothing... nothing at all," he says.

Across this tiny Horn of Africa nation, dry river beds criss-cross the landscape. In a normal year, many would be flooding their banks by now. Emaciated livestock have become a common sight, and among the people, the very real fear of hunger has set in. This is the most serious drought in memory," says Naila Abdella, a 27-year old mother of two who lives in the western town of Mogolo, where she and her husband farm several acres. "In the past, we were able to produce just enough to get by, but in this drought, we haven't been able to produce anything."

Naila says that like many people, she and her husband have started to sell their livestock in exchange for food, but prices have plummeted because of the sharp increase in sales and the poor condition of most herds. Several weeks ago, she says she arrived at the local market to find no grain available for the first time ever. Elsewhere, the little grain that is making it to the markets has become prohibitively expensive. So for now, Naila and thousands like her must ration what little food they have left.

"If we face more problems like this we will have to abandon the area," says Naila. "But things are bad everywhere, so I don't know where we will go."

POOR RAINS

Exceptionally short, erratic, and unpredictable rainfall this year is expected to lead to the worst food shortage in independent Eritrea's history, leaving farmers like Naila desperate, and the government in search of help. Last month, an international team which included the United Nations' Emergency Relief Coordinator, Kenzo Oshima, as well as senior aid representatives from the US and the European Union, came to assess the severity of the situation. So far, no food has been sent, but a request by the UN's World Food Programme for emergency assistance for Eritrea from the donor community is expected this week.

"The problem is clearly beyond the capabilities of Eritrea itself to deal with," said Oshima, following his three-day visit. "This situation clearly needs assistance and support from the international community."

According to the Eritrean government, some 1.4 million people - over a third of the country's population - face food shortages through to the end of next year, due to the almost complete failure of seasonal rains across the country. That figure is nearly three times the original estimate released in July. Officials say further revisions are still possible, and estimate that an additional 900,000 people, from internally displaced to recent returnees, will also likely need short-term food aid and other assistance.

This year's harvest is expected to produce 60 percent less food than last year - only 70,000 mt compared to over 200,000 mt in 2001. This is the lowest figure ever harvested. With an estimated 600,000 mt needed to feed the nation's 3.5 million people - and only 130,000 mt available via imports and the government's emergency stores - the Eritrean government is hoping donors will make up the 400,000 mt difference.

WARNING OF DONOR FATIGUE

International aid representatives say that famine can be avoided, but donor fatigue due to exceptional needs in other drought-stricken parts of eastern and southern Africa could chip away at support. "This drought will probably have a more devastating effect than in Southern Africa where they've had longer periods of stability," says Lauren Landis, director of Food for Peace, the US Agency for International Development's (USAID) relief wing. "But I think famine can be avoided because in this region in particular we're getting a bit better at detecting these things early."

Still, the severity of the drought is complicated further by the return of tens of thousands of refugees from neighbouring Sudan, who started fleeing during Eritrea's war of independence in the 1960s. Most of them are returning to Gash Barka and need food, shelter and land. Much of the land cannot be cultivated due to the preponderance of landmines following the two-year border war with Ethiopia which broke out in 1998.

"Given that we know the severity of the situation now, if in four or five months we begin to see grossly emaciated children, it will be a failure of the international community, the government, and the Diaspora to respond adequately," says Musa Bungudu, the UN's deputy humanitarian coordinator in Eritrea. "It's a collective responsibility."

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