Global Policy Forum

By Geir Moulson

The world's richest countries are growing alarmingly complacent about the global AIDS epidemic as infections reach new levels, the United Nations said in a report issued Tuesday. The report noted that the number of cases in Russia alone will more than double this year. "It's very striking that in the wealthy countries there is a perception that AIDS is over - there is far less investment in education programs," said Peter Piot, executive director of UNAIDS.

"The availability of treatment has resulted in a complacency which is becoming really dangerous," Piot told The Associated Press. "Considering that today we've got as many new infections in Western Europe and North America as 10 years ago, there is no excuse for that." The annual AIDS Epidemic Update released Tuesday predicted 45,000 new cases this year in North America and 30,000 in Western Europe. Nearly 1.5 million people in the industrialized countries will be living with the AIDS virus by the end of the year.

The report said the number of new HIV infections in Africa dropped this year for the first time - to 3.8 million from 4 million in the previous year. But UNAIDS was quick to damp any optimism, noting that the number of people infected worldwide is expected to rise to 36.1 million, with 5.3 million new infections. Three million people, up from 2.6 million a year ago, are expected to die of AIDS.

Those who use drugs through needles are thought to make up the bulk of new infections - and are most hurt by failing prevention efforts, the report said. The same group accounted for the alarming rise in infections this year in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, where the number of people living with the virus is expected to rise from 420,000 to 700,000 - a figure the report called "a conservative estimate."

In Russia, UNAIDS said, about 300,000 people will be infected by the end of the year - more than twice last year's figure of 130,000. "In one year, more people have become infected with HIV in Russia than all previous years combined," Piot said, adding that the disease "shows no sign of curbing its exponential growth" in Russia and has spread to cities across the country. He said the Russian government's response "is not commensurate with the potential of the problem," but that Ukraine and some former Soviet republics in Central Asia are doing better. "Governments there are struggling with so many problems - economic, security, social problems - but this is one where they can make a difference now," he said.

Africa remains by far the hardest-hit region, with 25.3 million people infected by the virus. Of the 3 million people expected to die of AIDS this year, four-fifths are in Africa. Even the drop in infections is fragile, Piot said. "A lot will depend on what happens in Nigeria," the continent's most populous country, which has been relatively unaffected. The drop may partly be because the people most at risk from AIDS already have been infected, Piot added.

"Stabilization means that there are as many people dying from HIV as there are becoming newly infected," he said. "So it's not terribly good news to say the least, but it may mean a turning point." The 27-page report urged more financial aid for Africa to launch "a credible assault on AIDS," saying $3 billion a year could make a massive difference to prevention and basic care on the continent. With deaths mounting, "we're only at the beginning of the impact of the AIDS epidemic," Piot said. "It's measurable now in terms of gross domestic product. It kills the people who are supposed to develop countries."

The report estimates that there are 1.4 million people living with HIV or AIDS in Latin America and 5.8 in South and Southeast Asia. Most of the Asian infections are in a few large countries, but the study said AIDS has "ample room for growth" through the sex trade and drug use.

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