Global Policy Forum

by Alan Friedman

The world will face more terrorism and North-South conflict unless rich nations make a major effort to increase foreign aid to poor countries, according to Romano Prodi, president of the European Commission.

Speaking in a weekend interview, Mr. Prodi said that the Group of Seven industrialized nations should be thinking beyond the defeat of the Qaida terrorist network and should follow the G-7 guidelines aimed at channeling 0.7 percent of gross domestic product into aid for poor countries. He criticized rich nations as "going in the wrong direction" and asserted that current foreign aid had dropped to 0.2 percent of GDP.

"Without more aid there is a greater risk of terrorism, I am convinced of that," he said. "It may not be a causal effect at the moment, and I cannot tell you the outburst from the South will be next year or in two years time, but I know that we are building a tragedy for tomorrow."

The consequence of not increasing foreign aid, he said, would be "tension, tension, tension, between North and South."

Mr. Prodi also warned the United States not to attack Iraq without sufficient consultation with the European Union.

"We cannot find ourselves in front of a fait accompli," he said, explaining that he fully agreed with recent warnings from Joschka Fischer, the German foreign minister, that Europe would view a surprise attack on Iraq with skepticism.

"What Fischer said reflects the common opinion of European people," Mr. Prodi said. "We can't have an attack and then discuss it afterwards. We need to know why Iraq and not some other country. We need to be assured of consultation with Washington on any planned attack."

Mr. Prodi's statements come amid heavy criticism of his leadership style by other European politicians and the news media. Aides to Mr. Prodi contend that the criticism has been unfair and that it comes in part from a group of senior bureaucrats in Brussels who feel threatened by his attempts to reform the commission and in part from an unfair bias on the part of some German and British newspapers.

In the interview, Mr. Prodi was uncharacteristically blunt about European foreign policy, acknowledging that Europe had not yet formed a real common policy.

"We are shaping it," he said, "and, compared to the European role in the Gulf War or in the Balkans, we now play a much more active role. But it is true that you cannot say there is one European policy even though there is much more consultation, much more common will, and united action."

Asked if he was satisfied with intelligence sharing inside Europe in the war against terrorism, Mr. Prodi said he was not. "There is not enough working together on a daily basis," he said.

During the "emergency" in Afghanistan, the cooperation among European intelligence services had been good, he said, but "it is not enough, because intelligence sharing means similar communications, language, knowing each other and trust, and this is not the case."

Mr. Prodi also expressed concern about the infringement of civil liberties that could result from tighter security. "If we lose the advantage of democracy, of openness, that could be a problem," he said. "And I am worried not only about civil rights but also about the efficiency of our system."

The financial war against the Qaida terrorist network, Mr. Prodi said, had helped Europe to accelerate legislation on money laundering and joint police actions that had been slow-moving in recent years.

"We have changed all our legislation because of the war on terrorism, and very quickly," he said. "For two years, I tried to have a common arrest policy in Europe and a common fight against dirty money, but it was impossible. Now we have done it." Turning to Europe's economic prospects, Mr. Prodi said he had become "a little less pessimistic in the last week or two."

Citing lower medium-term interest rates, he said that he was "a little more confident that we have in some way reached the psychological bottom."

Mr. Prodi said he agreed with proposals by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund for coordinated public spending by European governments to stimulate growth.

He said this would not threaten the Growth and Stability Pact, which limits the level of national budget deficits to 3 percent of GDP.

"The Stability Pact must be respected," he said, "but it gives much more freedom than most people think. It is not so rigid. The IMF recommendation is compatible with the Stability Pact and we must exploit it because it will be a message that will help the consumer psychology in Europe and enhance the recovery."

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