June 3, 1999
Climate emissions from air transport will continue to increase and could account for 15% of total human-induced global warming effects by 2050, according to an international scientific panel report just published. The report is expected to strengthen debate over how aviation emissions can be incorporated into greenhouse gas reduction commitments under the Kyoto protocol.
Prepared over two years by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the report calculates that aviation was already to blame for 3.5% of total global warming in 1992, and that projected growth in passenger and freight transport will ensure that it accounts for at least 5% and perhaps as much as 15% in fifty years time. Fuel consumption is expected to rise from 130m tonnes in 1992 to 300m in 2015 and 450m in 2050.
The report warns that the development of a new generation of supersonic aircraft could increase the global warming effect even further. It concludes that expected fuel efficiency improvements "will not fully offset" the effects of the increased consumption. It suggests that environmental levies "could be a means of reducing aircraft emissions" and says the removal of subsidies and incentives having negative environmental consequences and the trading of emissions "can be considered". It also calculates that up to 10% of air passengers could be shifted to high-speed rail links on high-density short-haul routes in areas such as Europe.
The report's publication coincides with a two-week meeting of national climate experts in Bonn, who are debating how Kyoto protocol commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions should be implemented (ENDS Daily 1 June). Rules for including international air transport emissions are among the topics due to be discussed. Until now the issue has been stalled because of disagreements over how such emissions should be allocated between countries, with some, such as the Netherlands, objecting to a simple formula based on the number of flights handled.
European environmental groups have welcomed the IPCC report as vindicating campaigns to reduce the distance travelled by air through the introduction of fuel taxes and the removal of "hidden subsidies" for air travel such as the duty-free status of alcohol and tobacco products sold at airports. A coalition, including Friends of the Earth and the European Federation for Transport and Environment, is urging heads of government meeting today in Cologne not to allow an extension to the duty-free status of air travel, and the same group will call for more action on the emissions allocation issue next week during the Bonn climate talks.
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