Global Policy Forum

by Trevor Cole

1. General Motors of Canada Ltd.
Maureen Kempston Darkes, President
Revenue: $34.2 billion

Nothing's more cyclical than the car business. So, while GM's revenues swelled by 23% in 1997, pushing Kempston Darkes back up to No. 1, think of it as a temporary reign. There's foreign competition to deal with too. Though Canadians were buying more cars in the first four months of '98, GM's sales were down 13.7%. Market share has dropped steadily as Toyota, Honda, Volkswagen and Hyundai have all made big gains. What's a GM president to do but, um, lobby to get Asia-Pacific countries to ease their trade restrictions?

2. BCE Inc.
Jean Monty, President & CEO
Revenue: $33.7 billion

Fresh from a five-year turnaround at Nortel, Monty came in swinging. A week after taking control, he sold off BCE's stake in Britain's Cable & Wireless Communications PLC, giving him $2.2 billion to put toward BCE's vital interests in satellites and fibre optics. Now he has to get BCE's various units – Bell Canada, Nortel, Bell Mobility, Telesat – working together to carve out new niches in information and entertainment technology.

3. Ford Motor Co. of Canada Ltd.
Bobbie Gaunt , President & CEO
Revenue: $27.9 billion

Six months after taking over, despite watching profits rise 42.7% in 1997, Gaunt started making noises about job cuts and plant closings. By 2000, she said, overcapacity would mean "lights out" for 25 plants in North America. It's all part of the Big Three's efforts to keep the 6.7% tariff in place on non-North American imports. Till doomsday arrives, Gaunt hopes to increase Ford's share of the full-sized and luxury segments.

4. Northern Telecom Ltd.
John Roth, President & CEO
Revenue: $15.7 billion (U.S.)

After a resounding 1997, Nortel is paying the price of success: When first-quarter revenue rose just 9% (instead of the 12% some expected), the stock price took a hit. Still, Roth's true objective is to move Nortel toward info-tech. He created a new data and multimedia unit, he's buying software and Internet-technology companies and he's committing some 4,000 employees to Internet-related projects.

5. Seagram Co. Ltd.
Edgar Bronfman Jr., President & CEO
Revenue: $12.85 billion (U.S.)

Having observed how annoying the movie business can be (1997 earnings were off, Hollywood mocks him, his executives green-light the wrong films), Bronfman seeks salvation in music, paying close to $10 billion for Polygram. The family cringes: More entertainment, Edgar? Maybe they should check the latest numbers. For the quarter ending in March, 1998, Universal's earnings were up 31%. Wines and spirits fell 44%.

6. Royal Bank of Canada
John Cleghorn, Chairman & CEO
Revenue: $17.6 billion

The "Clark Kent of Canadian banking" we called him in April, after it became apparent that Cleghorn was a phone booth away from emerging as a financier ready, as he says, to "kick ass." When he gets Paul Martin's call, he'll have the muscle to better the $1.68-billion profit his bank generated in 1997 – tops in Canada. But he still has to convince consumers he'll use his new powers for their good as well as his own.

7. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
Al Flood , Chairman & CEO
Revenue: $16.9 billion

First-quarter profits were flat, and when CIBC finally merges with TD, Flood looks to be history. So why is this man smiling? CIBC stock should gain from TD's somewhat higher multiples, and Flood can look forward to a personal profit of some $35.7 million on his options. Meantime, he plans substantial increases in spending on communication and information technologies to keep the bank competitive.

8. Chrysler Canada Ltd.
William Glaub, President & CEO
Revenue: $16.7 billion

Forgive Glaub if he's not sure what hit him. Plucked from his job as Chrysler's general manager of fleet operations in the United States, Glaub landed in the midst of high-rev turmoil. Not only does he have to turn around Chrysler Canada's profits, which fell 24% in 1997, he now has to deal with the fallout from Chrysler's merger with Daimler-Benz, including the suggestion that it might not qualify for protection under the Canada-U.S. auto pact.

9. Bank of Montreal
Matthew Barrett, Chairman & CEO
Revenue: $14.5 billion

Recently and notoriously wed, Barrett knows all about the problems of headline-grabbing marriages. Still, it can't be much fun waiting for Pops Martin to give his blessing. As the co-chairman with "special responsibility for activities relating to integration," Barrett will have to find a way to integrate his minimal-job-loss statements with the need to cut costs by 10%.

10. TransCanada PipeLines Ltd
George Watson, President & CEO
Revenue: $14.3 billion

Its new headquarters are about to rise in downtown Calgary, there's a $1.2-billion pipeline expansion under way, and its merger with Nova Corp. is imminent. TCPL should be feeling pleased with itself. Instead, Watson whines about lack of recognition for TCPL's efforts to meet producers' capacity demands, and a bad taste lingers from two pipeline projects that fizzled.

11. George Weston Ltd.
Galen Weston, Chairman
Revenue: $13.95 billion

Weston must pray to the gods of consumption. Gluttony's no deadly sin for a company thriving on sales of Girl Guide cookies and coarse-ground mustard. Profits swelled by 32% in 1997, fed by earnings from Weston Foods, Loblaw and forestry products. If and when Weston sells E.B. Eddy, he'll put that money toward U.S. food-industry acquisitions. Americans eat even more than we do.

12. Bank of Nova Scotia
Peter Godsoe, Chairman & CEO
Revenue: $13.2 billion

Everyone's choosing up in the banker's playground, and Scotiabank's the fat kid no one wants on the team. Godsoe's smart though – profits were a record $1.5 billion last year, and about 50% of the bank's income derives from international operations, so Godsoe's looking for foreign banks to play with. If they don't want him either, his mom will just tell him they're jealous.

13. The Thomson Corp.
Richard Harrington, President & CEO
Revenue: $8.8 billion (U.S.)

In its quest to remake itself as a marketing and information enterprise, Thomson, in the past decade, acquired some 350 businesses and product lines, and disposed of about 200 others. Under Harrington, the process has taken on an almost athletic verve. In May, Thomson freed itself from the shackles of its British travel business, Thomson Travel Group PLC, which accounted for a third of its revenue and 12% of its operating profit. Likely result: higher price-earnings multiples on Thomson stock.

14. Sun Life Assurance Co. of Canada
Donald A. Stewart, CEO
Revenue: $12.2 billion

Just when the insurance business is getting interesting, John McNeil, Sun Life's CEO for a decade, is getting out. Bumped up to chairman, he'll retire next year, and that puts Sun Life's various headaches – losses and regulatory penalties in Britain, demutualization at home – in Stewart's actuarial hands. But all is not gloom – an upcoming IPO should make him money, and sales in '97 were up 14%.

15. Onex Corp.
Gerald Schwartz, Chairman, President & CEO
Revenue: $11.4 billion

Profits fell 37% last year, but with a stash of acquisition-ready cash, in the neighbourhood of $700 million, Schwartz predicted you'd hear more from Onex. And you have – the largest high-tech initial public offering in Canadian history (Celestica, $400 million) and acquisitions of a major airline catering business and a customer service communications company. But in executive ranks, the best news is that Schwartz is hiring.

16. Loblaw Cos. Ltd.
Richard Currie, President
Revenue: $11 billion

Currie's making tough-guy faces over speculation that Wal-Mart will enter the grocery business. "If they come, we're here – end of story," he said in April. Given that Galen Weston expects him to come up with 20% gains in 1998, could this be when the tough go shopping?

17. Alcan Aluminium Ltd.
Jacques Bougie, President & CEO
Revenue: $7.9 billion (U.S.)

Suddenly, we love our aluminum – markets are strong, inventories are down, and the Russians are using up their supply. Among producers, Alcan may be the best positioned to capitalize. Since 1993, Bougie has handled a tough environment with a vigorous cost-cutting, debt-reduction strategy that's starting to pay off. Last year, profits rose 18%. And that was before all the fun began.

18. Toronto Dominion Bank
A. Charles Baillie, Chairman, President & CEO
Revenue: $10.5 billion

In January, he told reporters he wasn't sure bank mergers were desirable. "Bigger is not always better," he exclaimed, insisting that he wouldn't merge with anyone until the government task force reported in September. Then April came, and now (surprise!) Baillie's poised to take the top job when TD and CIBC are allowed to join. If he says he doesn't want the job, we'll consider it a done deal.

19. ManuLife Financial Co.
Dominic D'Alessandro, President & CEO
Revenue: $10.4 billion

ManuLife notched record profits in 1997, with $119 million of the $743 million coming from the sale of its 30.5% share of Altamira. And among insurance company execs who want to lead their firms toward capital-market success, D'Alessandro has one big advantage – he's the only one with significant private-sector expertise. Still, that alone won't prepare him for a transition that he calls "a horrifically complicated exercise."

20. Imasco Ltd.
Brian Levitt, President & CEO
Revenue: $10.2 billion

With first-quarter net income from normal operations up 18% from last year, and share earnings 21% higher, Levitt can afford to wax positive about the contributions of Shoppers Drug Mart and Genstar Development. Meanwhile, lawsuits against the industry and an admission that Imperial Tobacco once experimented with ammonia-laced cigarettes can't stop it from upping its market share to 68.9%. Yet the trumpeting is minimal. Go figure.

21. Imperial Oil Ltd.
Robert B. Peterson, Chairman, President & CEO
Revenue: $9.97 billion

These are dark days in the oil patch, with all four major refining and retailing companies reporting first-quarter losses. Imperial Oil lost 41% (only Petro-Canada, with a 65% loss, was worse off). At the company's annual meeting in April, Peterson said, in effect, that most experts were optimistic about oil prices, but he figured pessimism was safer.

22. Canadian Pacific Ltd.
David O'Brien, Chairman, President & CEO
Revenue: $9.8 billion

It's not quite Godzilla, but the slumbering dinosaur roused itself quite nicely in 1997, with profits jumping 44% to $1.3 billion. First-quarter '98 was even better for four of five divisions. And with its debt halved to $1.8 billion, CP should be lighter on its feet and ready for the international expansion O'Brien anticipates.

23. Bell Canada
John MacDonald, President
Revenue: $9.2 billion

Sucked into the presidential seat by the vacuum effect of Ronald Osborne's departure, MacDonald has to toe the BCE line. That is: Long distance is going nowhere; the Internet is it. Budgets have to come down 15%, and Bell Canada needs $750 million for the fall launch of its new high-speed data and Web-services spin-off. Will employees get the layoff word via telephone or E-mail?

24. Ontario Hydro
Ronald Osborne, President & CEO
Revenue: $8.96 billion

He talks about opening the hydro business to competition, but it seems Premier Mike Harris wants to sell all or part of Ontario Hydro, fast. Who could blame him after it lost $6.3 billion in 1997 – the largest one-year loss in Canadian corporate history. Now if only Osborne, newly arrived from Bell Canada, can keep the heavy-water spills to a minimum when prospective buyers are coming 'round for a look.

25. Power Corp. of Canada
Paul Desmarais Jr., Chairman
Revenue: $8.95 billion

Power Corp.'s profits jumped 13% to $331 million in 1997, and its share of earnings from subsidiaries, including Power Financial Corp., jumped 20% to $277 million. But what's the real measure of power? One of Desmarais's underlings – Power Financial president and CEO Robert Gratton – made $27.4 million last year, making him Canada's highest paid exec.

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