Global Policy Forum

The world is still on track to signficantly lower poverty rates despite setbacks from recent economic, food and energy crises, but progress has been uneven, the UN said on Thursday.

The overall poverty rate is expected to fall below 15% – well below the 23% target set in the millennium development goals (MDGs) – by 2015, fulfilling the target of the first MDG of halving between 1990 and 2015 the proportion of people living on less than $1 day. The gains come despite the economic and financial crisis of 2008 that began in the US and Europe.

That the world remains on track is due to the momentum of growth in the developing world. In absolute numbers, the number of people in developing countries in extreme poverty (living on less than $1.25 a day) is projected to fall below 900 million, according the UN's annual report card of regional progress towards the eight MDGs.

East Asia continues to record the sharpest reduction in poverty, particularly in China and India, where the number of people living in extreme poverty in both countries fell by about 455 million between 1990 and 2005, and where 320 million more people are expected to join their ranks by 2015. The UN MDG report said projections for sub-Saharan Africa are slightly more upbeat than previously estimated, and the extreme poverty rate in the region is expected to fall below 36%.

Despite significant reductions in extreme poverty, the world will find it difficult to eradicate hunger, however, which is another target of MDG 1. The persistence of hunger is forcing policymakers to address problems such as access to food and high food prices. The Food and Agriculture Organisation has been asked to undertake a comprehensive review to see what policies could lead to a reduction in the proportion of people going hungry, which has plateaued at 16%.

Sub-Saharan Africa chalked up the best record for improvement in primary school enrolment, but the world is far from achieving universal primary education, MDG 2. Burundi, Madagascar, Rwanda, Samoa, São Tomé and Principe, Togo and Tanzania are among the countries that have achieved, or are nearing the goal of universal primary education. The abolition of school fees has contributed to progress in many of these countries, the UN said.

To achieve universal primary education, children must complete a full cycle of primary schooling. Currently, 87 out of 100 children in poor countries complete primary education.

On gender equality and the empowerment of women, the report said girls are gaining ground in education, though unequal access persists in many regions. Some 96 girls were enrolled in primary and secondary schools for every 100 boys in 2009, a significant improvement since 1999, when the ratios were 91 and 88, respectively. However, only three regions – the Caucasus and central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and south-east Asia – have achieved gender parity in primary education. Exceptionally, in eastern Asia, girls slightly outnumber boys in primary school.

Aid, which comes under MDG 8, reached $128.7bn last year, a record high, but this was still $19bn short of the commitments made at the Gleneagles summit in 2005. Africa is shortchanged as the UN says preliminary estimates show it will receive only $11bn out of the $25bn increase promised at Gleneagles "due mainly to the underperformance of some European donors".

Although gains have been made across the board, including a reduction in child mortality, a decline in new HIV infections and improved access to drinking water, the UN urged countries to target those hardest to reach – the poorest of the poor and those disadvantaged because of their sex, age, ethnicity or a disability. It said the gap between urban and rural areas remains daunting.

"We have success stories to point to," the UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, said in Geneva. "But achieving all the MDGs will require extra effort. Even where we have seen rapid growth, as in east Asia and other parts of the developing world, progress is not universal, nor are the benefits evenly shared. Stubbornly high unemployment persists in rich and poor countries alike. And in many cases, the wealth gap is widening – between the prosperous and the marginalised, between urban and rural. Solid gains in school enrolment and gender parity hardly signal mission accomplished."

The world needs to look beyond 2015, Ban added. "When the MDGs were first articulated, we knew that achieving them would, in a sense, be only half the job," he said. "We knew that too many men, women and children would go largely untouched by even our best efforts. That is why we are already working with all our partners to sustain the momentum and to carry on with an ambitious post-2015 development agenda."

First agreed at the UN MDG summit in September 2000, the eight MDGs set worldwide objectives for reducing extreme poverty and hunger, improving health and education, empowering women and ensuring environmental sustainability by 2015. At last year's MDG summit in New York, world leaders reaffirmed their commitment to the goals and the expansion of successful approaches; a global strategy for women's and children's health was launched with more than $40bn in commitments.

"Achieving the goals will require equitable and inclusive economic growth – growth that reaches everyone and that will enable all people, especially the poor and marginalised, to benefit from economic opportunities," said Ban. "Between now and 2015, we must make sure that promises made become promises kept. World leaders must show not only that they care, but that they have the courage and conviction to act."