Global Policy Forum

By Jeff Gerth

As President Bush seeks to reduce American reliance on oil imported from the Persian Gulf, new government studies predict that in two decades the West will be even more dependent on oil from Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers.

Mr. Bush, asked a week ago on the ABC News program "20/20" about the importance of Saudi Arabian oil, said that "we must have an energy policy that diversifies away from dependency" on foreign sources of oil — including some that "don't like America."

Late last month, the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration forecast that in 2025 the majority — 51 percent — of world oil production would come from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. About two-thirds of OPEC production, in turn, emanates from the Persian Gulf. The Energy Information Administration, or E.I.A., says OPEC now produces 38 percent of the world's oil.

The information administration projects that Saudi Arabia will need to produce 22 million barrels a day by 2020 to meet increased world demand, far in excess of its current production of about 8 million barrels. "We're going to rely more and more on the Middle East markets for oil," said Fatih Birol, the chief economist for the Paris-based International Energy Agency, or I.E.A. The group's recent World Energy Outlook, which estimates energy markets through 2030, mirrors the forecast of the American energy agency.

Government and industry oil experts widely agree that it makes sense for the United States to diversify its sources of energy. It is also possible that in the next decade increased oil from the Atlantic Basin and the Caspian Sea could make a short-term dent in American dependency on the Middle East. "Our dependency on the Persian Gulf could take a slight dip before it goes up," said John Brodman, the deputy assistant secretary of energy for international energy policy. "But the basic geological fact of life is that 70 percent of the proven oil reserves are in the Middle East."

The importance of Saudi Arabia to long-term oil markets is different from its ability to produce extra oil quickly — an ability sometimes referred to as surge capacity. If oil markets were disrupted by a war in Iraq or strikes in Venezuela, only Saudi Arabia could increase its production within a few months to fill the gap.

The new forecasts highlight a fundamental quandary facing the United States: American dependence on Saudi oil limits the strategic options of the United States even as relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia have been strained since the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.

President Bush's national security strategy, released in September, aimed to "enhance energy security" by having the United States work with allies to "expand the sources and types of global energy supplied, especially in the Western Hemisphere, Africa, Central Asia and the Caspian region." The strategy did not mention the Persian Gulf region, which figures so prominently in the latest forecasts.

The ability of countries like Saudi Arabia to increase their production significantly is by no means a certainty. The Energy Information Administration estimates assume that "sufficient capital will be available to expand production capacity." Furthermore, some oil experts question whether the region's old fields will be up to the task.

"The giant and supergiant oil fields are getting old, and some are clearly dying without being replaced," said Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior official in the National Iranian Oil Company. In an e-mail message sent from Iran, he questioned whether Saudi Arabia was capable of reaching 22 million barrels a day and said it would take "a miracle for OPEC to ever achieve a production of 50 million barrels per day (or more) as all three major institutions — I.E.A., E.I.A. and OPEC — are predicting for 2020."