October 24, 2001
Pakistan's military is responding to Indian troop movements along the Line of Control, a cease-fire line that divides the disputed Kashmir region between India and arch rival Pakistan, the Pakistani daily Dawn reported. Pakistan's Inter Services Public Relations Directorate said Islamabad was taking precautionary measures in response to Indian troop movements, which are said to include bringing heavy artillery and mortar guns closer to the frontier.
The escalating tensions in Kashmir are of great concern to Washington. Pakistan's cooperation is vital for U.S. operations in Afghanistan, and another border clash with India could throw this off track. Even if things don't come to blows along the frontier, Islamabad's distraction with Kashmir could thin security forces in the west, increasing the risk for U.S. military personnel operating out of Pakistan.
If Washington can no longer be confident of Pakistan's safety as a haven for troops and rescue operations, U.S. military planners will face an extremely difficult situation -- one that could seriously slow the Afghanistan operation and increase the risks.
The unsettled issue of sovereignty over Kashmir has long plagued India-Pakistan- relations. Both New Delhi and Islamabad have used Washington's involvement in Afghanistan to press their claims to the region. Pakistan has hinted that it expects international mediation on the Kashmir issue as part of its cooperation with the United States. India, which opposes third-party intervention, has instead called for Washington to crack down on Islamic militants in the region, labeling them Pakistani-backed terrorists.
Kashmir was one of the major topics during U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's Oct. 16-17 visit to Pakistan and India. Powell cautioned both nations to keep tensions from getting out of hand. Yet New Delhi and Islamabad are now paying more attention to the region and exchanging threatening remarks.
On Oct. 20, India's home affairs minister, L.K. Advani, called for Pakistan to control militants in Kashmir and warned that New Delhi would take "appropriate measures" - suggesting it might make military incursions across the border to strike at suspected terrorist camps should this be deemed necessary. Two days later, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf warned India against "being adventurist," saying Pakistan could defend itself in a war with India and would "teach [India] a lesson."
The diversion of attention -- and potentially forces -- to the disputed Kashmir region by Pakistan may pose a new problem for Washington. U.S. forces in Pakistan have recently come under fire there while participating in search-and-rescue and logistics operations in attacks on neighboring Afghanistan. Such instances could become more common as Islamabad shifts attention toward its border with rival India.
Although it was only small-arms fire directed at U.S. helicopters, the incident emphasized the potential security threats to the operations in Pakistan. U.S. forces are reportedly stationed in at least two Pakistani airfields -- one in Jacobabad and the other in Dalbandin -- as well as near the coastal city of Pasni. Given the tense political situation in Pakistan, where supporters of the Taliban and opponents to the U.S. military campaign abound, these bases are already a risky proposition.
Pakistani security forces offer protection for the bases, keeping demonstrators from nearby towns at bay. It is politically important that defense continues to come from Pakistan rather than from U.S. forces themselves. If U.S. troops shot Pakistanis -- even in defense -- the political fallout could quickly lead to their expulsion from the country.
Yet this reliance on Pakistan for security has its own risks, not the least of which is the possibility that some military guards are sympathetic to anti-U.S. demonstrators. Potentially more troubling for the United States is the prospect that Pakistani security forces now protecting these bases and the border with Afghanistan could be shifted to service in Kashmir.
If tensions in Kashmir continue to rise, Washington may soon find its assets in Pakistan at greater risk of harassment by Pakistani militants or Afghan infiltrators. Such a situation would quickly undermine Pakistan's usefulness as a safe haven for rescue and logistics operations, seriously complicating U.S. strategy and operations in Afghanistan.
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